CAJ | 학술논문

本文将信息披露质量引入财务预警指标体系中,采用支持向量机（SVM）财务预警模型,研究处于不同生命周期阶段的企业在引入信息披露质量前后财务危机预测准确性的差异,然后利用决策树（DT）模型分析信息披露质量在财务预警体系中的重要程度。实证结果表明,引入信息披露质量的SVM财务预警模型,其准确率在成长期、成熟期和衰退期均有一定的提高,导入期则没有发生变化;对于处于不同生命周期阶段的企业,信息披露质量对财务预警的影响程度具有一定差异：成熟期企业影响程度最大,成长期和衰退期企业影响程度较大,而导入期企业影响效果不明显。因此,合理引导公司信息披露,对于降低上市公司发生财务危机的概率具有重要导向效应。
본문장신식피로질량인입재무예경지표체계중,채용지지향량궤（SVM）재무예경모형,연구처우불동생명주기계단적기업재인입신식피로질량전후재무위궤예측준학성적차이,연후이용결책수（DT）모형분석신식피로질량재재무예경체계중적중요정도。실증결과표명,인입신식피로질량적SVM재무예경모형,기준학솔재성장기、성숙기화쇠퇴기균유일정적제고,도입기칙몰유발생변화;대우처우불동생명주기계단적기업,신식피로질량대재무예경적영향정도구유일정차이：성숙기기업영향정도최대,성장기화쇠퇴기기업영향정도교대,이도입기기업영향효과불명현。인차,합리인도공사신식피로,대우강저상시공사발생재무위궤적개솔구유중요도향효응。
This study interprets from the perspective of corporation life cycle theory,and establishes a financial warning index system with the quality of information disclosure. Then,it creates the financial warning system by integrating the support vector machines（ SVM） and decision tree（ DT）. It also investigates the differences in the accuracy of financial crisis forecast with or without the introduction of the quality of information disclosure and also studies the importance of the quality of information disclosure in the financial warning system. The empirical results show that the introduction of the quality of information disclosure leads to the improved accuracy in the financial crisis forecast and the impact shows evident difference in different stages of the life cycle. Therefore,rational guide in the corporate information disclosure is of great importance in minimizing the probability of the occurrence of financial crisis.