国际经贸探索
國際經貿探索
국제경무탐색
International Economics and Trade Research
2015年
7期
75~84
,共null页
跨境贸易结算 货币反替代 利率差 汇率
跨境貿易結算 貨幣反替代 利率差 彙率
과경무역결산 화폐반체대 리솔차 회솔
cross-border trade settlement; inverse currency substitution; interest rate differentials; exchange rate
在内地人民币理财产品收益率高于香港市场人民币贷款利率的情况下,内地进出口企业大量运用“内保外贷”获取利息收益,因此基于交易需求的货币替代理论(边际效用理论)并不能完全解释人民币在内地进出口贸易结算中替代美元程度不断提高的现象。文章将利率差引入企业货币选择的理论模型并通过实证检验发现:2012年以来.利率差引发的贸易投机是内地贸易结算中人民币替代美元的主要动因,而汇率水平和汇率波动对贸易结算中人民币替代美元的影响并不显著。
在內地人民幣理財產品收益率高于香港市場人民幣貸款利率的情況下,內地進齣口企業大量運用“內保外貸”穫取利息收益,因此基于交易需求的貨幣替代理論(邊際效用理論)併不能完全解釋人民幣在內地進齣口貿易結算中替代美元程度不斷提高的現象。文章將利率差引入企業貨幣選擇的理論模型併通過實證檢驗髮現:2012年以來.利率差引髮的貿易投機是內地貿易結算中人民幣替代美元的主要動因,而彙率水平和彙率波動對貿易結算中人民幣替代美元的影響併不顯著。
재내지인민폐리재산품수익솔고우향항시장인민폐대관리솔적정황하,내지진출구기업대량운용“내보외대”획취이식수익,인차기우교역수구적화폐체대이론(변제효용이론)병불능완전해석인민폐재내지진출구무역결산중체대미원정도불단제고적현상。문장장리솔차인입기업화폐선택적이론모형병통과실증검험발현:2012년이래.리솔차인발적무역투궤시내지무역결산중인민폐체대미원적주요동인,이회솔수평화회솔파동대무역결산중인민폐체대미원적영향병불현저。
China's trade enterprises use "overseas loans under domestic guarantee" to obtain profits, since the yield rate of financial products in the mainland is higher than the lending rate of RMB in Hong Kong market. Therefore, the currency substitution theory based on demand (marginal utility theory) cannot fully explain the increasing substitution rate of RMB against Dollar in China's trade settlement. This paper introduces interest-rate to the model of currency choices and makes an empirical test. It finds that the trade speculation triggered by interest rate differentials has been the main reason for the inverse currency substitution since 2012, and the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on inverse currency substitution is not significant.