CAJ | 학술논문

通过对企业担保圈风险问题开展的系列研究发现，企业担保圈是一个“小世界”，任何两个毫不相干的信贷企业通过若干圈担保链条都能产生必然联系，而且担保圈中的“多米诺效应”与“阻尼效应”是对立统一的。一旦担保圈的风险暴露，不仅影响到担保圈内企业发展，也严重威胁商业银行的资产安全，甚至形成区域性金融风险。本文通过设计担保圈风险指标，选择合适的方法对风险指标未来五年走势进行前瞻性递推预测；采用拓扑网状软件揭示出一个地区重点担保圈中成千上万家企业担保关联风险传染和扩散路径等情况；提出化解企业担保圈风险并守住不发生区域性金融风险底线的对策建议。
통과대기업담보권풍험문제개전적계렬연구발현，기업담보권시일개“소세계”，임하량개호불상간적신대기업통과약간권담보련조도능산생필연련계，이차담보권중적“다미낙효응”여“조니효응”시대립통일적。일단담보권적풍험폭로，불부영향도담보권내기업발전，야엄중위협상업은행적자산안전，심지형성구역성금융풍험。본문통과설계담보권풍험지표，선택합괄적방법대풍험지표미래오년주세진행전첨성체추예측；채용탁복망상연건게시출일개지구중점담보권중성천상만가기업담보관련풍험전염화확산로경등정황；제출화해기업담보권풍험병수주불발생구역성금융풍험저선적대책건의。
Through the study of the risk of enterprise guarantee circles, it is found that an enterprise guarantee circle is a ＂small world＂, any two unrelated credit linked enterprise can have a positive connection by several guarantee circle chains. In a guarantee circle, ＂domino effect＂ and ＂damping effect＂ is a unity of opposites, once the risk of a guarantee circle exposes, not only the development of the enterprises of that guarantee circle would be affected, but also the commercial banks would face serious credit risks, and the regional financial risks would occur. This paper designs a guarantee circle risk index by selecting suitable methods of risk index with a prediction in the future five years. With the help of Topology software, it is revealed the connected guarantee risk contagion and diffusion path within a key area of a guarantee circle of a thousand million businesses. Suggestions to manage the risks of corporate guarantee circles are proposed in the end.