CAJ | 학술논문

先前的研究主要集中在辖区内经济增长对主政官员晋升概率的影响。基于晋升激励的视角,本文利用1995-2012年省级主政官员职务变动的数据,考察了辖区内以碳排放绩效为表征的可持续发展能力是否影响地方官员政治晋升的概率。实证结果表明,辖区内碳排放绩效对省级主政官员晋升的概率有显著正向的影响。具体来说,省委书记晋升概率受辖区碳排放绩效的影响比省长更加敏感;并且碳排放绩效对地方官员晋升概率的正向影响在2004年之后更加显著。本文的发现是稳健的,并且有助于增进对地方官员治理的理解。
선전적연구주요집중재할구내경제증장대주정관원진승개솔적영향。기우진승격려적시각,본문이용1995-2012년성급주정관원직무변동적수거,고찰료할구내이탄배방적효위표정적가지속발전능력시부영향지방관원정치진승적개솔。실증결과표명,할구내탄배방적효대성급주정관원진승적개솔유현저정향적영향。구체래설,성위서기진승개솔수할구탄배방적효적영향비성장경가민감;병차탄배방적효대지방관원진승개솔적정향영향재2004년지후경가현저。본문적발현시은건적,병차유조우증진대지방관원치리적리해。
Previous studies focused on the effects of economic development on the promotion of local official. Based on the perspective of promotion incentive, employing the turnover data of top provincial leaders in China between 1995 and 2012, we exam whether carbon emission performance affect the promotion of local official. The results indicate that the likelihood of promotion of provin- cial leaders increases with their carbon emission performance. More specifically, we find that the turnover of secretaries of the provincial is more sensitive to their governor with carbon emission per- formance, and the positive impact of carbon emission performance on promotion of local official turned out to be more significant in the post -2004 subsample. These findings are robust to various sensitivity tests, and promote greater understanding of the governance of local officials.