CAJ | 학술논문

核心通货膨胀对于央行准确判定物价走势、更好实现稳定物价目标具有重要意义。本文采用广义动态因子模型与频谱分解技术测度的核心通货膨胀相比于CPI通胀率能更准确反映我国物价变动的周期特征与长期趋势,对于央行更合理地引导社会公众的通胀预期,实现物价稳定与产出稳定的动态平衡具有一定的参考价值。鉴于中国转型时期通胀因素的叠加性与复杂性,本文还提出金融宏观调控应综合考虑包括核心CPI、CPI在内的多种通货膨胀指标,在维持长期物价稳定的同时,兼顾物价的短期波动。
핵심통화팽창대우앙행준학판정물개주세、경호실현은정물개목표구유중요의의。본문채용엄의동태인자모형여빈보분해기술측도적핵심통화팽창상비우CPI통창솔능경준학반영아국물개변동적주기특정여장기추세,대우앙행경합리지인도사회공음적통창예기,실현물개은정여산출은정적동태평형구유일정적삼고개치。감우중국전형시기통창인소적첩가성여복잡성,본문환제출금융굉관조공응종합고필포괄핵심CPI、CPI재내적다충통화팽창지표,재유지장기물개은정적동시,겸고물개적단기파동。
The core inflation is crucial for the central bank to determine price movements correctly and realize the target of stabilizing prices. This paper applies the generalized dynamic factor model and spectral decomposition technique to estimate China＇s core inflation. Find!ngs of comparative analysis to CPI show that the estimated core inflation index can better reflect the periodic features and long-term trend of price changes in our country, and thus it has great reference value for the central bank to guide public expecta- tion on inflation more suitably and reach dynamic equilibrium between price and output stabili- ty. Considering the superposition and complexity of inflation cause factors during our country＇s transforma- tion period, this paper further argues that financial macro-regulation should take multiple inflation indexes including core inflation index and CPI into account to achieve the balance between long-term price stability and short-term price fluctuation.