CAJ | 학술논문

由于强制性计生政策是我国近年来生育率下降的重要原因,估计了不实行计生政策情况下的生育率调整值（）,分别计算了全国31个省（市）、自治区1997年至2012年间的养老社会保障水平值（）,同时引入人均国内生产总值（）等指标,采用面板回归方法分析了我国养老社会保险制度对生育率的影响。研究表明,养老社会保障水平每提高一个百分点,下降0.264 8译,而未经估计处理的生育率下降0.428 8译。同时,经济发展水平也对生育率产生一定影响,人均的对数值每提高1个百分点,下降0.519 9译,未剔除计生政策影响的生育率下降1.098 4译。
유우강제성계생정책시아국근년래생육솔하강적중요원인,고계료불실행계생정책정황하적생육솔조정치（）,분별계산료전국31개성（시）、자치구1997년지2012년간적양로사회보장수평치（）,동시인입인균국내생산총치（）등지표,채용면판회귀방법분석료아국양로사회보험제도대생육솔적영향。연구표명,양로사회보장수평매제고일개백분점,하강0.264 8역,이미경고계처리적생육솔하강0.428 8역。동시,경제발전수평야대생육솔산생일정영향,인균적대수치매제고1개백분점,하강0.519 9역,미척제계생정책영향적생육솔하강1.098 4역。
Since mandatory family plan policy has been the primary cause for fertility decline in recent years, this paper estimates the adjusted value of birth rate （ABR） under the assumptive condition that family plan policy were not implemented. Then the security level of Old-Age Social Insurance （SST） was calculated based on the relevant information about 31 regions from 1997 to 2012 respectively, and a panel data model composed of SST, per capita gross domestic product （GDP） and some other indicators was set up to analyzes the influence of old-age social insurance system on fer- tility. The paper concludes that every one percent increase in SST will lead to a 0.2648‰ reduction in ABR; and for fertility without estimation, a 0.4288‰ decline. The level of economy development also has some impact on fertility, when log per capita GDP increases 1%, ABR will fall 0.5199‰, the fertility without estimation will decrease 1.0984‰.