南开经济研究
南開經濟研究
남개경제연구
Nankai Economic Studies
2015年
3期
19~37
,共null页
美元弱势调整 中国与东盟 产业内贸易 产品贸易偏转
美元弱勢調整 中國與東盟 產業內貿易 產品貿易偏轉
미원약세조정 중국여동맹 산업내무역 산품무역편전
A Weakening US Dollar; Sino-ASEAN; Intra-industry Trade; Trade Deflection of Goods
美元弱势调整推高了中国外贸成本，这会造成中国对东盟国家贸易偏转吗？本文统计分析和面板Tobit模型估计表明：（1）美元弱势调整下中国对美出口占比渐失的份额确实导致中国向东盟国家同类产品的出口偏转，同期东盟国家也明显增加了向中国的出口份额。美元走弱下中国对东盟国家呈很高的产品贸易互补性和较低的产品贸易竞争性。（2）美元走弱下人民币兑东盟国家货币实际升值会减小中国向东盟国家产品出口占比，并没有提高中国从东盟国家产品进口占比。同期，美元弱势调整本身会造成中国向东盟国家产品出口偏转，但减小中国从东盟国家产品进口占比。（3）中国与东盟国家间关税削减会显著增进中国向东盟国家产品贸易偏转，中国和东盟国家间经济增长也是如此。据此，中国与东盟国家间贸易发展是互补式贸易合作，中国和东盟国家积极建设中国一东盟自贸区大市场平台，大幅削减关税，并实施货币互换来保持汇率稳定，这将极大地提升中国与东盟国家问经贸发展。
美元弱勢調整推高瞭中國外貿成本，這會造成中國對東盟國傢貿易偏轉嗎？本文統計分析和麵闆Tobit模型估計錶明：（1）美元弱勢調整下中國對美齣口佔比漸失的份額確實導緻中國嚮東盟國傢同類產品的齣口偏轉，同期東盟國傢也明顯增加瞭嚮中國的齣口份額。美元走弱下中國對東盟國傢呈很高的產品貿易互補性和較低的產品貿易競爭性。（2）美元走弱下人民幣兌東盟國傢貨幣實際升值會減小中國嚮東盟國傢產品齣口佔比，併沒有提高中國從東盟國傢產品進口佔比。同期，美元弱勢調整本身會造成中國嚮東盟國傢產品齣口偏轉，但減小中國從東盟國傢產品進口佔比。（3）中國與東盟國傢間關稅削減會顯著增進中國嚮東盟國傢產品貿易偏轉，中國和東盟國傢間經濟增長也是如此。據此，中國與東盟國傢間貿易髮展是互補式貿易閤作，中國和東盟國傢積極建設中國一東盟自貿區大市場平檯，大幅削減關稅，併實施貨幣互換來保持彙率穩定，這將極大地提升中國與東盟國傢問經貿髮展。
미원약세조정추고료중국외무성본，저회조성중국대동맹국가무역편전마？본문통계분석화면판Tobit모형고계표명：（1）미원약세조정하중국대미출구점비점실적빈액학실도치중국향동맹국가동류산품적출구편전，동기동맹국가야명현증가료향중국적출구빈액。미원주약하중국대동맹국가정흔고적산품무역호보성화교저적산품무역경쟁성。（2）미원주약하인민폐태동맹국가화폐실제승치회감소중국향동맹국가산품출구점비，병몰유제고중국종동맹국가산품진구점비。동기，미원약세조정본신회조성중국향동맹국가산품출구편전，단감소중국종동맹국가산품진구점비。（3）중국여동맹국가간관세삭감회현저증진중국향동맹국가산품무역편전，중국화동맹국가간경제증장야시여차。거차，중국여동맹국가간무역발전시호보식무역합작，중국화동맹국가적겁건설중국일동맹자무구대시장평태，대폭삭감관세，병실시화폐호환래보지회솔은정，저장겁대지제승중국여동맹국가문경무발전。
A weakening US dollar has propelled the rise of China＇s foreign trade cost, and does it cause the trade deflection from China to ASEAN Countries？ This paper uses statistical analysis and panel Tobit model estimation to show that firstly, along with a weakening US dollar, the dwindling market share of China＇s export to the US brings about China＇s export deflection of the same goods to ASEAN countries, while ASEAN countries increase the share of export to China also. There appears high trade complementarity of goods between China and ASEAN countries, whereas appears low trade competition of goods, following with the weakening US dollar. Sec- ondly, with the weakening US dollar, the real appreciation of RMB against ASEAN currencies can reduce the export share of China＇s goods to ASEAN countries, and does not promote China＇s import share of goods from ASEAN countries. Meanwhile, a weakening US dollar itself causes the increase in China＇s export share of goods to ASEAN countries, whereas causing the decrease in China＇s import share of goods from them. Thirdly, the tariff reduction between China and ASEAN countries can significantly enhance the trade deflection of China＇s goods to ASEAN countries. So does the economic growth between China and ASEAN countries. Therefore, it is truly complementary trade cooperation for the trade development between China and ASEAN countries. The fact that China and ASEAN countries are actively establishing the unified large market through Sino-ASEAN free trade area, largely cutting down tariff rate, and adopting currency swap to keep bilateral exchange rate stable, will largely promote the development of economy and trade between China and ASEAN countries.
