西部论坛
西部論罈
서부론단
West Forum
2015年
4期
40~48
,共null页
人口均衡发展 人口自均衡 人口红利 劳动力供给 人口预测 人口结构 超老龄化 人口发展规划
人口均衡髮展 人口自均衡 人口紅利 勞動力供給 人口預測 人口結構 超老齡化 人口髮展規劃
인구균형발전 인구자균형 인구홍리 노동력공급 인구예측 인구결구 초노령화 인구발전규화
balanced development of population; the balance of population itself; demographic dividend; labor supply; population forecast; population structure; super aging; demographic projection
人口均衡发展是科学发展观指导下人口理论的创新与发展,而人口自身的均衡则是实现人口长期均衡的前提。通过人口预测参数设计分别模拟＂现状＂＂由现状逐步调整到理想状态＂及＂理想状态＂三种方案,对中国人口的中长期发展态势进行预测分析,结果表明：由于庞大的人口基数和人口生产自身的惯性作用,中国人口在中期（2050年以前）的基本发展态势基本不会受到人口政策或其他经济社会因素的影响;但从长期（2050—2100年）来看,尽早实现总和生育率达到世代更替水平会极大地缓解长期的人口结构压力,尤其是超老龄化压力。要实现我国人口长期均衡发展,由＂单独二孩＂向＂全面二孩＂过渡的人口发展规划应尽早纳入顶层设计,同时积极应对人口超老龄化的相关政策也应纳入议事日程。
人口均衡髮展是科學髮展觀指導下人口理論的創新與髮展,而人口自身的均衡則是實現人口長期均衡的前提。通過人口預測參數設計分彆模擬＂現狀＂＂由現狀逐步調整到理想狀態＂及＂理想狀態＂三種方案,對中國人口的中長期髮展態勢進行預測分析,結果錶明：由于龐大的人口基數和人口生產自身的慣性作用,中國人口在中期（2050年以前）的基本髮展態勢基本不會受到人口政策或其他經濟社會因素的影響;但從長期（2050—2100年）來看,儘早實現總和生育率達到世代更替水平會極大地緩解長期的人口結構壓力,尤其是超老齡化壓力。要實現我國人口長期均衡髮展,由＂單獨二孩＂嚮＂全麵二孩＂過渡的人口髮展規劃應儘早納入頂層設計,同時積極應對人口超老齡化的相關政策也應納入議事日程。
인구균형발전시과학발전관지도하인구이론적창신여발전,이인구자신적균형칙시실현인구장기균형적전제。통과인구예측삼수설계분별모의＂현상＂＂유현상축보조정도이상상태＂급＂이상상태＂삼충방안,대중국인구적중장기발전태세진행예측분석,결과표명：유우방대적인구기수화인구생산자신적관성작용,중국인구재중기（2050년이전）적기본발전태세기본불회수도인구정책혹기타경제사회인소적영향;단종장기（2050—2100년）래간,진조실현총화생육솔체도세대경체수평회겁대지완해장기적인구결구압력,우기시초노령화압력。요실현아국인구장기균형발전,유＂단독이해＂향＂전면이해＂과도적인구발전규화응진조납입정층설계,동시적겁응대인구초노령화적상관정책야응납입의사일정。
Balanced development of population is demographic theoretical innovation and development under the guidance of the scientific development concepts and the balance of population itself is the precondition of long-term equilibrium population. Based on different population prediction parameters,this paper designs three kinds of forecast schemes to simulate the state quo,adjustment from the state quo to ideal situation and ideal situation,and forecasts the medium and long-term development tendency of China＇s population situation. The results show that the basic development tendency of population of China in the medium term（ before 2050） won＇t be impacted by policy and other economic and social factors. While in the long run（ 2050-2100）,total fertility rate reaches generation replacement level as soon as possible will greatly reduce the long-term pressure of the population structure,especially the super aging population pressure. In order to realize the long-term balanced development of population,we should plan the top-level design to open a two-child per family policy or even cancel the birth limitation policy as soon as possible,and super aging policy response at the same time should also be included in the agenda.
