中国科技论坛
中國科技論罈
중국과기론단
Forum on Science and Technology in China
2015年
8期
58~64
,共null页
新兴产业 Z—Score模型 成长导向 稳健性评估
新興產業 Z—Score模型 成長導嚮 穩健性評估
신흥산업 Z—Score모형 성장도향 은건성평고
Emerging industries; Z-Score credit risk model; Growth orientation; Robustness evaluation
以光伏发电、风能发电和光热利用三类处于不同发展阶段的新兴产业为例，应用Z-Score风险模型分析评估了新兴产业不同发展阶段中成长导向的稳健性。分析结果表明，新兴产业在不同发展阶段需要选择相应的成长导向，并在不同成长导向和发展模式之间进行转换。现阶段中国战略性新兴产业多处于技术与商业化示范或规模化降低成本阶段，应该坚持以“效率导向”作为主要的成长模式，进入大面积应用阶段后，新兴产业可以实现规模、效益和效率三维度的同步成长。
以光伏髮電、風能髮電和光熱利用三類處于不同髮展階段的新興產業為例，應用Z-Score風險模型分析評估瞭新興產業不同髮展階段中成長導嚮的穩健性。分析結果錶明，新興產業在不同髮展階段需要選擇相應的成長導嚮，併在不同成長導嚮和髮展模式之間進行轉換。現階段中國戰略性新興產業多處于技術與商業化示範或規模化降低成本階段，應該堅持以“效率導嚮”作為主要的成長模式，進入大麵積應用階段後，新興產業可以實現規模、效益和效率三維度的同步成長。
이광복발전、풍능발전화광열이용삼류처우불동발전계단적신흥산업위례，응용Z-Score풍험모형분석평고료신흥산업불동발전계단중성장도향적은건성。분석결과표명，신흥산업재불동발전계단수요선택상응적성장도향，병재불동성장도향화발전모식지간진행전환。현계단중국전략성신흥산업다처우기술여상업화시범혹규모화강저성본계단，응해견지이“효솔도향”작위주요적성장모식，진입대면적응용계단후，신흥산업가이실현규모、효익화효솔삼유도적동보성장。
Taking three emerging industries in different stages of development as examples, which are photovohaic, wind power, so- lar-thermal industries. It applied Z-Score Credit Risk Model to analyze and evaluate the robustness of emerging industries＇ growth orienta tion in different stages of development. The results show that emerging industry in different stages of development needs to choose the ap- propriate growth orientation, and convert between different development models. Furthermore, at the present stage, most of the strate- gic emerging industries in China are in the stage of ＂technology and commercial demonstration＂ or ＂buy-down＂, and they should insist on the ＂efficiency orientation＂ . After entering widespread deployment stage, Emerging industries can achieve the synchronous growth of scale, profits and business efficiency.
