CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于不同产业对能源的依赖程度不同,分析了浙江省产业结构的变化单位GDP能耗的影响。通过描述性分析发现单位GDP能耗与三产结构之间存在密切的关系。在单位GDP能耗分解理论模型中显示这种关系是线性的,进而建立了实证分析模型,通过定量分析发现,浙江省产业结构变化对单位GDP能耗的影响是显著的。依据定量模型和浙江省2020年三产产业结构规划,对浙江省2020年能源消费需求进行预测。预测得到2020年浙江省单位GDP能耗将由2013年的0.744吨标准煤/万元下降至0.513吨标标准煤/万元。
본문기우불동산업대능원적의뢰정도불동,분석료절강성산업결구적변화단위GDP능모적영향。통과묘술성분석발현단위GDP능모여삼산결구지간존재밀절적관계。재단위GDP능모분해이론모형중현시저충관계시선성적,진이건립료실증분석모형,통과정량분석발현,절강성산업결구변화대단위GDP능모적영향시현저적。의거정량모형화절강성2020년삼산산업결구규화,대절강성2020년능원소비수구진행예측。예측득도2020년절강성단위GDP능모장유2013년적0.744둔표준매/만원하강지0.513둔표표준매/만원。
In this paper the authors did the analysis of influence on changing of unit of GDP energy consumption led by the different degree of dependence on energy industry in Zhejiang Province.Through descriptive analysis we found that close relationship exists between the unit GDP energy consumption and the structure of the three industries.The unit GDP energy consumption decomposition theory model shows that this linear relationship between of the change of industrial structure of Zhejiang Province and the unit GDP energy consumption is significant by the empirical analysis model.According to the quantitative model and the Third Industrial structure of Zhejiang Province in 2020,we forecast that the unit GDP energy consumption will decrease to 0.513 tons of standared coal/10 million yuan to 0.744 tons of standard coal/10 thousand yuan.