CAJ | 학술논문

本文检验汇率变动如何影响企业的风险承担能力，以及这种影响是否受到政府补贴的影响。我们使用2000-2007年中国工业企业数据库和海关贸易数据库的匹配数据，系统地评估人民币汇率变动对企业风险承担的影响。结果表明，（1）人民币升值有利于企业风险承担水平的提高；（2）作用机制方面，基于中介效应模型的分析发现人民币汇率对企业风险承担的出口传递效应为负，规模经济效应却显著为正，并且后者大于前者，总体效应为正；（3）人民币汇率对企业风险承担的影响，因企业规模、融资约束和所有制的不同而具有显著的异质性。此外，政府补贴不仅直接显著提高了企业风险承担水平，而且还有利于强化人民币汇率对企业风险承担的积极影响。本文不仅从人民币汇率的视角为风险承担提供了新的解释，同时为客观评估人民币汇率形成机制改革对企业风险承担的影响提供了微观层面的依据。
본문검험회솔변동여하영향기업적풍험승담능력，이급저충영향시부수도정부보첩적영향。아문사용2000-2007년중국공업기업수거고화해관무역수거고적필배수거，계통지평고인민폐회솔변동대기업풍험승담적영향。결과표명，（1）인민폐승치유리우기업풍험승담수평적제고；（2）작용궤제방면，기우중개효응모형적분석발현인민폐회솔대기업풍험승담적출구전체효응위부，규모경제효응각현저위정，병차후자대우전자，총체효응위정；（3）인민폐회솔대기업풍험승담적영향，인기업규모、융자약속화소유제적불동이구유현저적이질성。차외，정부보첩불부직접현저제고료기업풍험승담수평，이차환유리우강화인민폐회솔대기업풍험승담적적겁영향。본문불부종인민폐회솔적시각위풍험승담제공료신적해석，동시위객관평고인민폐회솔형성궤제개혁대기업풍험승담적영향제공료미관층면적의거。
Based on the firm- level micro data and highly disaggregated cus- toms data from 2000 to 2007, this paper investigates the effects of RMB ex-change rate on enterprises＇ risk- taking. The results show that：（1） there exists a significant causal relationship between RMB exchange rate and enterprises＇ risk -taking, and the corporate risk- taking is significantly increased after the RMB exchange rate appreciation; （2） regarding the specific mechanisms, the intermedi- ary model shows that RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on firms＇ risk- taking through the export effects, but it has a positive effect on firms＇ risk- tak- ing through economies of scale, and the net effect is positive; （3） the effects of RMB exchange rate on enterprises＇ risk- taking vary significantly among firms with different characteristics. It is found that government subsidies can strengthen the above positive effects. This paper provides a micro- level basis for objective- ly evaluating the effect of RMB exchange rate on Chinese enterprises＇ risk- tak- ing, and also proposes some policy implications to help reform the RMB ex- change rate formation mechanism.