CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过构建一个四部门的动态随机一般均衡模型，实证检验了随着利率和汇率市场化改革的协同推进，国内经济在受到不同冲击时，产出和通胀的反应。研究发现，当国内经济受到国内利率和技术的正向冲击时，对利率和汇率实施一定程度的管制有利于稳定经济增长和物价水平；当国内经济受到国外利率和技术的正向冲击时，加速市场化有利于及时抵御外部冲击的不利影响；而当国内经济受到国内和国外利率的负向冲击时，加速市场化面临着稳增长和控通胀不可兼得的情形。因此，为了确保宏观经济的稳健运行，政府以及货币当局应当实时关注我国经济面临的主要冲击，根据具体的经济形势，灵活推进利率和汇率市场化改革。
본문통과구건일개사부문적동태수궤일반균형모형，실증검험료수착리솔화회솔시장화개혁적협동추진，국내경제재수도불동충격시，산출화통창적반응。연구발현，당국내경제수도국내리솔화기술적정향충격시，대리솔화회솔실시일정정도적관제유리우은정경제증장화물개수평；당국내경제수도국외리솔화기술적정향충격시，가속시장화유리우급시저어외부충격적불리영향；이당국내경제수도국내화국외리솔적부향충격시，가속시장화면림착은증장화공통창불가겸득적정형。인차，위료학보굉관경제적은건운행，정부이급화폐당국응당실시관주아국경제면림적주요충격，근거구체적경제형세，령활추진리솔화회솔시장화개혁。
This paper establishes a 4- sector DSGE model to test the macro- economic effects of different degrees of marketization on exchange rate and inter- est rate when the economy is faced with domestic and foreign shocks. The re- suits show that when the economy is faced with positive interest rate and technol- ogy shocks from foreign countries, a certain degree of regulation on interest rate and RMB exchange rate is helpful for the promotion of economic growth and sta- bilization of commodity price; when the economy is faced with positive interest rate and technology shocks from the domestic, accelerating the marketization can neutralize the negative impacts from the foreign shocks. When the economy con- fronts both foreign and domestic negative interest rate shocks, promoting the growth and stabilizing the inflation cannot be achieved at the same time when marketization is accelerating. On the basis of these conclusions, China should al- ways pay close attention to the main shocks, and set an optimal degree of mar- ketization of both RMB exchange rate and interest rate according to the actual economic situation.