CAJ | 학술논문

文章对上合组织框架下汇率波动对中俄、中哈贸易流量的数量关系进行了实证分析。样本选取2000—2012年期间中国、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的数据,使用静态、动态面板数据进行经验研究。研究结果显示：汇率波动对中俄、中哈的出口贸易,从整体上看＂汇率波动＂对出口贸易的影响并不显著;对中俄、中哈的进口贸易的影响是不确定的,且汇率的波动对贸易流量的影响非常小。经研究发现贸易结构的不合理是影响中俄、中哈贸易的主要影响因素。因此,为扩大双边的贸易提出相对应的政策和建议：优化中俄、中哈的贸易结构;在上合组织框架内建立贸易自由区,致力于扩大区域贸易的自由化;同时,积极发挥新疆的区位优势,积极建设国际大通道,把区位优势更好地转化为经济优势。
문장대상합조직광가하회솔파동대중아、중합무역류량적수량관계진행료실증분석。양본선취2000—2012년기간중국、아라사화합살극사탄적수거,사용정태、동태면판수거진행경험연구。연구결과현시：회솔파동대중아、중합적출구무역,종정체상간＂회솔파동＂대출구무역적영향병불현저;대중아、중합적진구무역적영향시불학정적,차회솔적파동대무역류량적영향비상소。경연구발현무역결구적불합리시영향중아、중합무역적주요영향인소。인차,위확대쌍변적무역제출상대응적정책화건의：우화중아、중합적무역결구;재상합조직광가내건립무역자유구,치력우확대구역무역적자유화;동시,적겁발휘신강적구위우세,적겁건설국제대통도,파구위우세경호지전화위경제우세。
The paper gives an empirical analysis of quantitative relations about the exchange rate fluctuations on the Sino - Russian and Sino - Kazakh within the framework of the SCO. The data from China, Russia and Kazakhstan during 2000 and 2012 were selected as the sample, with which the static and dynamic panel data were researched. The results show that the fluctuation of the exchange rate does not influence the export of Sino - Russia and Sino - Kazakh very significantly on the whole. It has an uncertain impact on import of Sino - Russia and Sino - Kazakh. Meanwhile it impacts the trade flows slightly. The study shows that the main factor which influences the trade of Sino - Russia and Sino - Kazakh is the unreasonable trade structure. Therefore, the paper gives some suggestion to expand the bilateral trade, which is to optimize the trade structure of Sino - Russia and Siuo - Kazakh, to establish a free trade zone within the framework of SCO to accelerate the liberalization of regional trade, and to build an international channels to make better use of the regional advantages of Xinjiang, which can transfer the regional advantages into economic advantages better.