CAJ | 학술논문

由于我国空气污染状况的日趋恶化,研究空气污染的形成因素并制定相应的污染治理政策对于我国生态文明建设有着重要的意义. 基于STIRPAT环境效应分析模型,文中利用空间分析工具对选取的31个样本区域的PM2. 5 排放污染进行了空间探索性分析与空间计量检验. 空间探索性分析结果表明:通过计算全局空间Moran' s I指数测算出样本区域PM2. 5 排放污染具有较强的空间自相关性,局部空间聚集检验则显示出样本区域PM2. 5 排放污染除具有自相关性外还表现出一定的空间异质性. 进一步的空间计量检验结果显示样本区域GDP总量的增长将使得PM2. 5 污染继续恶化,而提高样本区域人均GDP 水平则能有效的降低污染水平. 样本区域在能耗上的空间交互影响也较为明显,对于选取的三个能耗指标,煤炭消耗的增加无论对于区域自身还是邻接区域都已成为加剧PM2. 5 排放污染的主要因素,原油消耗的增长只对邻接区域污染水平产生了影响,而电力消耗的提高缓解了区域自身的PM2. 5 排放污染但加剧了邻接区域的污染. 由于空间溢出效应的影响,样本区域 PM2. 5 污染表现出了很强的空间相关性,这就要求在相关污染治理政策的制定上要充分考虑到空间因素的影响,不仅要从经济发展方式和能源消耗结构的改变等环节入手,同时还要加强省域之间的协调促进,最终实现对污染的有效治理.
유우아국공기오염상황적일추악화,연구공기오염적형성인소병제정상응적오염치리정책대우아국생태문명건설유착중요적의의. 기우STIRPAT배경효응분석모형,문중이용공간분석공구대선취적31개양본구역적PM2. 5 배방오염진행료공간탐색성분석여공간계량검험. 공간탐색성분석결과표명:통과계산전국공간Moran' s I지수측산출양본구역PM2. 5 배방오염구유교강적공간자상관성,국부공간취집검험칙현시출양본구역PM2. 5 배방오염제구유자상관성외환표현출일정적공간이질성. 진일보적공간계량검험결과현시양본구역GDP총량적증장장사득PM2. 5 오염계속악화,이제고양본구역인균GDP 수평칙능유효적강저오염수평. 양본구역재능모상적공간교호영향야교위명현,대우선취적삼개능모지표,매탄소모적증가무론대우구역자신환시린접구역도이성위가극PM2. 5 배방오염적주요인소,원유소모적증장지대린접구역오염수평산생료영향,이전력소모적제고완해료구역자신적PM2. 5 배방오염단가극료린접구역적오염. 유우공간일출효응적영향,양본구역 PM2. 5 오염표현출료흔강적공간상관성,저취요구재상관오염치리정책적제정상요충분고필도공간인소적영향,불부요종경제발전방식화능원소모결구적개변등배절입수,동시환요가강성역지간적협조촉진,최종실현대오염적유효치리.
Due to the increasingly worse air pollution situation in China, the research of air pollution factors and the formulating of corresponding policies about pollution are of great significance for the construction of ecological civilization in China. Based on STIRPAT model, we carried out exploratory spatial analysis and spatial econometric analysis on PM2. 5 pollution of China' s 31 sample regions. Spatial analysis results show that the PM2. 5 emissions in sample regions in the global space with strong positive spatial autocorrelation;at the same time, in addition to a global positive spatial autocorrelation also, PM2. 5 emissions showed a certain spatial heterogeneity. The spatial econometric test showed that the growth of the total GDP deteriorated the PM2. 5 emission pollution, and improving the level of GDP per capita can effectively reduce the level of pollution. Regional spatial interaction of regions had a significant impact on energy consumption; when it comes to the index of energy consumption, increased coal consumption for both regional or neighboring regions has become the main factor for increasing PM2. 5 emission, oil consumption growth only affected the regional pollution level of the adjacent, while the increase of power consumption eased regional PM2. 5 emission in its own region but exacerbated the emission in the neigh boring regions. Based on the above conclusions, in order to effectivly control PM2. 5 pollution, China should change economic development mode and energy consumption structure, and strengthen coordination of provincial PM2. 5 emissions.