CAJ | 학술논문

基于1997-2012年中国30省(自治区、直辖市)的相关统计数据以及IPCC温室气体排放清单指南估算碳排放量,结合GDP数据得出各地区的碳排放强度,并利用空间面板计量模型,就能源禀赋和技术进步对碳排放强度的影响及趋势展开实证研究. 结果显示:①样本区间内,我国碳排放强度的全域Moran' s I指数均为正值,且通过了5%水平的显著性检验,表明我国省域的碳排放强度具有明显的空间集聚特征,碳排放强度较高的省区和较低的省区均趋于相邻. 另外,碳排放强度全域Moran' s I指数呈现出波动上升趋势,表明碳排放强度的集聚程度趋于强烈. ②能源禀赋对地区碳排放强度具有显著正向影响,能源丰裕地区,倾向于利用比较优势,发展能源开发、加工等能源依赖性强、附加值低的初级产品,最终形成了高碳排放的发展路径. 能源禀赋对碳排放强度还具有显著的空间外溢效应,能源丰裕的地区在推高当地的碳排放强度的同时,还会辐射到周边地区,并进一步影响全国的数据. 受能源开采限制以及国家政策等的影响,能源禀赋对碳排放强度的影响程度有弱化的趋势. ③技术进步各变量对我国碳排放强度的影响有所差异,其中外商投资和科技经费投资对碳排放强度具有显著的负向效应,而人力资本和专利授权量的溢出效应不明显. 从时间趋势来看,技术进步各变量对碳排放强度的影响均有所减弱,甚至出现由负向转为正向效应的情况. 这说明,我国目前的技术无法适应低碳要求,需要进一步优化外商投资结构,加大对教育及科技的投入,特别是要加强节能技术的扶持,以发挥技术溢出效应,实现节能减排目标.
기우1997-2012년중국30성(자치구、직할시)적상관통계수거이급IPCC온실기체배방청단지남고산탄배방량,결합GDP수거득출각지구적탄배방강도,병이용공간면판계량모형,취능원품부화기술진보대탄배방강도적영향급추세전개실증연구. 결과현시:①양본구간내,아국탄배방강도적전역Moran' s I지수균위정치,차통과료5%수평적현저성검험,표명아국성역적탄배방강도구유명현적공간집취특정,탄배방강도교고적성구화교저적성구균추우상린. 령외,탄배방강도전역Moran' s I지수정현출파동상승추세,표명탄배방강도적집취정도추우강렬. ②능원품부대지구탄배방강도구유현저정향영향,능원봉유지구,경향우이용비교우세,발전능원개발、가공등능원의뢰성강、부가치저적초급산품,최종형성료고탄배방적발전로경. 능원품부대탄배방강도환구유현저적공간외일효응,능원봉유적지구재추고당지적탄배방강도적동시,환회복사도주변지구,병진일보영향전국적수거. 수능원개채한제이급국가정책등적영향,능원품부대탄배방강도적영향정도유약화적추세. ③기술진보각변량대아국탄배방강도적영향유소차이,기중외상투자화과기경비투자대탄배방강도구유현저적부향효응,이인력자본화전리수권량적일출효응불명현. 종시간추세래간,기술진보각변량대탄배방강도적영향균유소감약,심지출현유부향전위정향효응적정황. 저설명,아국목전적기술무법괄응저탄요구,수요진일보우화외상투자결구,가대대교육급과기적투입,특별시요가강절능기술적부지,이발휘기술일출효응,실현절능감배목표.
Based on China's provincial data (including data of municipalities and autonomous regions)from 1997 to 2012, on the estimated carbon emissions from IPCC Green House Emission List , and on the carbon emission intensity of different regions from GDP data, this paper, using spatial panel econometric model, makes an empirical analysis of the effects of energy resources and technology advance on carbon emission intensity, as well as on their trend. The results indicate that firstly, during the research period, Moran' s I index is significantly positive ( with the coefficient over 5% in the significance test ) , suggesting that a marked feature of spatial agglomeration is found in China' s provincial carbon emission intensity, and that regions with relatively higher carbon emission tend to be adjacent to the ones with relatively lower carbon emission intensity. Also, Moran' s I index presents a fluctuating rising trend, indicating that the agglomeration of carbon emission become quite intense. Secondly, energy resources have an obvious positive influence on regional carbon emission intensity. In energy-rich regions, the development mode of high carbon emission intensity is more likely to be adopted, as these areas tend to make use of the comparative advantages, and develop the primary industry such as energy tapping and processing which rely heavily on energy and have low added value. Moreover, energy resources have an obvious spatial spillover effect on China ' s provincial carbon emission intensity, as evidenced by the fact that in energy-rich regions, abundant resources not only push up local carbon emission intensity, but also extend this effect to other areas, bringing further influence to China' s data in this regard at national level. Yet with the influence of national policies, the effects of energy resources begin to lose momentum. Thirdly, the effect of different variables of technology advance on China ' s carbon emission intensity varies, with significantly positive reducing effect on carbon emission intensity by foreign investment and technology fund investment on the one hand, and with unobvious spillover effect by human capital and patent authorization on the other hand. In course of time, however, the effect on carbon emission intensity by different components of technology advance weakens, to the extent that sometimes the effects turn from negative value to positive, which suggests that at present China' s technology is still unable to meet the requirement of low-carbon. What is needed is to further improve foreign investment structure, increase investment in education, science and technology, especially in energy-saving technology, so as to attain the goal of energy saving and emission reduction by giving full play to technological spillover effects.