中国人口·资源与环境
中國人口·資源與環境
중국인구·자원여배경
China Population Resources and Environment
2015年
9期
21-28
,共8页
二氧化碳排放%投入产出法%影响因素
二氧化碳排放%投入產齣法%影響因素
이양화탄배방%투입산출법%영향인소
CO2 emission%input-output%influence factors
近年来,能源和环境问题受到广泛关注,二氧化碳排放量作为重要指标,不仅决定了人们对于碳排状况的认识,更会对我国的产业结构调整、减排计划的执行以及国际碳排责任的判定产生影响. 然而,目前对于测算方法和其影响因素却鲜有系统的整理和分析. 本文梳理了当前主要的二氧化碳排放量计算方法,并基于投入产出法,对比计算了不同考虑因素对于二氧化碳排放量计算的影响,得到各种条件变动情况下所导致的测算偏差,并对此进行了分析. 研究发现,是否考虑能源转化、资本形成总额及出口调出的能源投入,是否考虑水泥的过程排放,都将会引起二氧化碳排放量测算的偏差. 具体来讲,若不剔除能源的转化部分,会使中间使用排放量被高估0. 3%,最终使用排放量被低估11. 7%;若不减去资本形成总额及出口调出的能源投入,会使中间使用排放量被低估3. 0%,最终使用排放量被高估103. 5%;若不考虑水泥的过程排放,会使中间使用排放量被低估10. 1%,总排放量被低估9. 8%. 最后,本文对碳排计算的方法和准确性问题提出了建议.
近年來,能源和環境問題受到廣汎關註,二氧化碳排放量作為重要指標,不僅決定瞭人們對于碳排狀況的認識,更會對我國的產業結構調整、減排計劃的執行以及國際碳排責任的判定產生影響. 然而,目前對于測算方法和其影響因素卻鮮有繫統的整理和分析. 本文梳理瞭噹前主要的二氧化碳排放量計算方法,併基于投入產齣法,對比計算瞭不同攷慮因素對于二氧化碳排放量計算的影響,得到各種條件變動情況下所導緻的測算偏差,併對此進行瞭分析. 研究髮現,是否攷慮能源轉化、資本形成總額及齣口調齣的能源投入,是否攷慮水泥的過程排放,都將會引起二氧化碳排放量測算的偏差. 具體來講,若不剔除能源的轉化部分,會使中間使用排放量被高估0. 3%,最終使用排放量被低估11. 7%;若不減去資本形成總額及齣口調齣的能源投入,會使中間使用排放量被低估3. 0%,最終使用排放量被高估103. 5%;若不攷慮水泥的過程排放,會使中間使用排放量被低估10. 1%,總排放量被低估9. 8%. 最後,本文對碳排計算的方法和準確性問題提齣瞭建議.
근년래,능원화배경문제수도엄범관주,이양화탄배방량작위중요지표,불부결정료인문대우탄배상황적인식,경회대아국적산업결구조정、감배계화적집행이급국제탄배책임적판정산생영향. 연이,목전대우측산방법화기영향인소각선유계통적정리화분석. 본문소리료당전주요적이양화탄배방량계산방법,병기우투입산출법,대비계산료불동고필인소대우이양화탄배방량계산적영향,득도각충조건변동정황하소도치적측산편차,병대차진행료분석. 연구발현,시부고필능원전화、자본형성총액급출구조출적능원투입,시부고필수니적과정배방,도장회인기이양화탄배방량측산적편차. 구체래강,약불척제능원적전화부분,회사중간사용배방량피고고0. 3%,최종사용배방량피저고11. 7%;약불감거자본형성총액급출구조출적능원투입,회사중간사용배방량피저고3. 0%,최종사용배방량피고고103. 5%;약불고필수니적과정배방,회사중간사용배방량피저고10. 1%,총배방량피저고9. 8%. 최후,본문대탄배계산적방법화준학성문제제출료건의.
In recent years, the energy and environmental problems have been drawing more and more attention, CO2 emission is an important index for many energy and environmental problem, which determines people' s understanding of the carbon emission situation as well as the low-carbon industrial adjusting and the identification of the international responsibility for carbon emission. The CO2 emission has been calculated by many scholars with different methods, but seldom researches focus on the comparing and analysis of different methods and the influence factors. In this situation, this paper measures China' s CO2 emission in 2007 by input-output method and the impact of different influence factors. The result indicates that many factor could cause bias in result, including the subtracting of transformational energy, energy invest in gross capital formation and export, CO2 from cement manufacture, and measuring with regional IO table. Without subtracting transformational energy, CO2 from intermediate demand will be 0. 3%overvalued, CO2 from final demand will be 11. 7% undervalued. Without subtracting energy invest in gross capital formation and export, CO2 from intermediate demand will be 3. 0% undervalued, and from final demand it will be 103. 5% overvalued. Without subtracting CO2 from cement manufacture, CO2 from intermediate demand will be 10. 1% undervalued, while total CO2 will be 9. 8%undervalued. At last, recommendations are given on the calculation method and veracity.
