电机与控制学报
電機與控製學報
전궤여공제학보
Electric Machines and Control
2015年
9期
103-107
,共5页
船舶%电力推进系统%最优组合预测模型%预测误差
船舶%電力推進繫統%最優組閤預測模型%預測誤差
선박%전력추진계통%최우조합예측모형%예측오차
marine%electric propulsion system%optimal combined prediction model%forecasting errors
为了进行船舶电力推进系统的运行状态预测,采用了最优组合预测方法. 该方法是在分析单项预测方法的基础上,以预测误差平方和最小为目标进行优化,形成最优组合预测模型. 应用最优组合预测方法建立了船舶电力推进系统的预测模型,结合主要运行参数的实测数据进行了预测模型仿真. 通过对比实船数据和仿真结果,表明采用最优组合预测方法可有效减小预测误差,具有一定的优越性.
為瞭進行船舶電力推進繫統的運行狀態預測,採用瞭最優組閤預測方法. 該方法是在分析單項預測方法的基礎上,以預測誤差平方和最小為目標進行優化,形成最優組閤預測模型. 應用最優組閤預測方法建立瞭船舶電力推進繫統的預測模型,結閤主要運行參數的實測數據進行瞭預測模型倣真. 通過對比實船數據和倣真結果,錶明採用最優組閤預測方法可有效減小預測誤差,具有一定的優越性.
위료진행선박전력추진계통적운행상태예측,채용료최우조합예측방법. 해방법시재분석단항예측방법적기출상,이예측오차평방화최소위목표진행우화,형성최우조합예측모형. 응용최우조합예측방법건립료선박전력추진계통적예측모형,결합주요운행삼수적실측수거진행료예측모형방진. 통과대비실선수거화방진결과,표명채용최우조합예측방법가유효감소예측오차,구유일정적우월성.
In order to forecast the running status of marine electric propulsion system the optimal com-bined prediction method was adopted. Based on analyzing each single forecasting method and targeting at minimizing quadratic sum of forecasting errors, the optimal combined prediction model was obtained. Based on the optimal combined prediction method, the prediction model of marine electric propulsion sys-tem was built and the mainly running characters' measure data were simulated. Through comparing the certain ship' s operation data with simulation data, the results show that the optimal combination predic-tion method availably reduces forecasting errors and has the certain superiority.
