CAJ | 학술논문

日益严重的老龄化和不断拉大的收入差距是当今中国发展面临的两大挑战，两者之间是否存在关联呢？文章利用1982—2013年时间序列数据，在非线性假设的基础上运用岭回归（Ridge Regression）估计方法从收入不平等的各个层面对两者之间的关系进行了实证检验，结果表明：不管是从全国、城镇内部、农村内部还是城乡对比的角度，人口老龄化都对收入不平等具有显著的倒U型影响，人口老龄化在不同的阶段通过改变“人口红利”影响经济发展从而间接作用于收入分配，这种作用机制不仅被动而且不一定有益，因此只有制定合适的人口政策和财政政策激发二次“人口红利”，才是促进经济社会良性发展的长久之计。
일익엄중적노령화화불단랍대적수입차거시당금중국발전면림적량대도전，량자지간시부존재관련니？문장이용1982—2013년시간서렬수거，재비선성가설적기출상운용령회귀（Ridge Regression）고계방법종수입불평등적각개층면대량자지간적관계진행료실증검험，결과표명：불관시종전국、성진내부、농촌내부환시성향대비적각도，인구노령화도대수입불평등구유현저적도U형영향，인구노령화재불동적계단통과개변“인구홍리”영향경제발전종이간접작용우수입분배，저충작용궤제불부피동이차불일정유익，인차지유제정합괄적인구정책화재정정책격발이차“인구홍리”，재시촉진경제사회량성발전적장구지계。
Growing aging and widening income disparity are two major challenges which are threating the development of today ’s China,so Whether there is an association between them? This article examine the relationship between them from all angles on the basis of non-linear assumptions ,and with the method of Ridge Regression by using the time-series data from 1982 to 2013. The results shows that population aging have a inverted U impact on the income inequality from all angles , population aging changes the income distribution by changing the “demographic dividend” and thus indirectly affect economic development at different stages,but this kind of mechanism is not necessarily beneficial. Therefore ,It is the development of appropriate popula-tion policy and fiscal policy to stimulate the secondary “demographic dividend”that the society can be running on a good way.