CAJ | 학술논문

合理地刻画风电场出力不确定性集合是应用鲁棒调度的重要前提。文中对风电场出力不确定性集合建模及评估方法进行了研究，依据风电数据是否完备，分别提出了精确、有效的建模方法。当风电数据完备时，相比于已有方法，所提方法建立了给定置信概率与不确定性集合之间的解析关系，且集合可构建为具有较强工程适用性的椭球或多面体形式。当风电数据不完备时，所提出的方法可辅助调度机构在仅获知部分风电场出力预测误差信息时更加合理、有效地刻画风电场出力的不确定性，从而制定更加经济、可靠的调度策略。此外，文中还提出了评估一般风电场出力不确定性集合的方法。基于 EirGrid 历史数据的算例分析，验证了所提出的不确定性集合建模方法的合理性、精确性，以及评估方法的有效性。
합리지각화풍전장출력불학정성집합시응용로봉조도적중요전제。문중대풍전장출력불학정성집합건모급평고방법진행료연구，의거풍전수거시부완비，분별제출료정학、유효적건모방법。당풍전수거완비시，상비우이유방법，소제방법건립료급정치신개솔여불학정성집합지간적해석관계，차집합가구건위구유교강공정괄용성적타구혹다면체형식。당풍전수거불완비시，소제출적방법가보조조도궤구재부획지부분풍전장출력예측오차신식시경가합리、유효지각화풍전장출력적불학정성，종이제정경가경제、가고적조도책략。차외，문중환제출료평고일반풍전장출력불학정성집합적방법。기우 EirGrid 역사수거적산례분석，험증료소제출적불학정성집합건모방법적합이성、정학성，이급평고방법적유효성。
Reasonable and accurate modeling of uncertainty set of wind farm outputs is prerequisite in the robust dispatch of power systems.The modeling and evaluation methods for uncertainty sets of wind farm outputs are studied.Considering the completeness of wind power data,several kinds of uncertainty set constructing methods incorporating wind power forecast error relevance are proposed.When wind power data is sufficient,the proposed methods gives an analytical relationship between the confidential probability and the detailed model of uncertainty sets,and the sets are built in the convex ellipsoid or polyhedron form with high engineering applicability.For power systems with insufficient wind power data,the proposed methods can help dispatch centers predict the power output uncertainty of wind farms more reasonably with limited information,and thus make a more economic and reliable dispatch strategy.Further,a method to evaluate general uncertainty sets for power output of wind farms is proposed.The appropriateness of the proposed uncertainty set constructing methods and the effectiveness of the evaluation methods are validated based on the historical data from Irish transmission system operator EirGrid.