CAJ | 학술논문

地铁施工导致的地表沉降问题日益突出，对其进行监测控制也愈发重要。采用时间序列ARMA模型对监测数据进行分析处理，并以过去一段时期的实测沉降值为依据进行沉降预报预测。结果表明当以实时监测数据为依据进行预测时，预测结果与实际情况基本吻合，精度较高；当进行多步预测时，预测结果精度低，误差大。故在工程实际中对地表沉降进行预测时，应当保持监测数据的频率和监测数据的事实有效性。
지철시공도치적지표침강문제일익돌출，대기진행감측공제야유발중요。채용시간서렬ARMA모형대감측수거진행분석처리，병이과거일단시기적실측침강치위의거진행침강예보예측。결과표명당이실시감측수거위의거진행예측시，예측결과여실제정황기본문합，정도교고；당진행다보예측시，예측결과정도저，오차대。고재공정실제중대지표침강진행예측시，응당보지감측수거적빈솔화감측수거적사실유효성。
With the problem of ground settlement caused by metro construction increasingly serious, to monitoring and control the settlement are also increasingly important. The method of time series analysis is adopted to analyze the settlement data with the ARMA model. Forecast is made based on a period of the measured settlement value. The results show that the prediction is consistent with the actual situation, and the ARMA model can be used to analyze and process settlement data.