CAJ | 학술논문

利用全球模式（BCC＿CSM1.1）驱动区域气候模式 RegCM4，模拟分析了 RCP 4.5和 RCP 8.5温室气体排放情景下未来2010—2099年长白山区的气候变化特征。结果表明：RegCM4模式对长白山区气候特征具有较好的模拟能力，未来 RCPs情景下长白山区气温明显升高。与参照时段（1986—2005年）相比，RCP 4.5和 RCP 8.5情景下长白山区的年平均气温在21世纪20年代分别增加了0.7℃和1.0℃，21世纪50年代年平均气温分别增加了1.6℃和2.2℃，21世纪80年代年平均气温分别增加了1.9℃和3.8℃。RCP 4.5和 RCP 8.5情景下，未来长白山区降水均呈略增多的趋势，21世纪20年代降水分别增加了6.5％和2.8％，21世纪50年代降水分别增加了6.6％和7.9％，21世纪80年代降水分别增加了11.0％和6.7％。此外，两种排放情景下未来长白山区日平均气温的统计特征发生改变，偏度系数的负值减小，峰度系数的负值增加，说明未来高温事件发生的可能性增加；同时，中雨以上级别降水的发生频率增加，说明未来极端降水事件发生的可能性增加。
이용전구모식（BCC＿CSM1.1）구동구역기후모식 RegCM4，모의분석료 RCP 4.5화 RCP 8.5온실기체배방정경하미래2010—2099년장백산구적기후변화특정。결과표명：RegCM4모식대장백산구기후특정구유교호적모의능력，미래 RCPs정경하장백산구기온명현승고。여삼조시단（1986—2005년）상비，RCP 4.5화 RCP 8.5정경하장백산구적년평균기온재21세기20년대분별증가료0.7℃화1.0℃，21세기50년대년평균기온분별증가료1.6℃화2.2℃，21세기80년대년평균기온분별증가료1.9℃화3.8℃。RCP 4.5화 RCP 8.5정경하，미래장백산구강수균정략증다적추세，21세기20년대강수분별증가료6.5％화2.8％，21세기50년대강수분별증가료6.6％화7.9％，21세기80년대강수분별증가료11.0％화6.7％。차외，량충배방정경하미래장백산구일평균기온적통계특정발생개변，편도계수적부치감소，봉도계수적부치증가，설명미래고온사건발생적가능성증가；동시，중우이상급별강수적발생빈솔증가，설명미래겁단강수사건발생적가능성증가。
Change trends of temperature and precipitation during 2010-2099 in Changbai Mountain area under RCPs scenarios were analyzed based on projections over China simulated by a RegCM4 (a high resolution regional climate model)that was driven by a GCM (BCC_CSM1.1)in its boundary.The results show that the RegCM4 can well simulate local climate characteristics,judging from comparisons of the simulation with in situ observation. The projected temperature is in a significantly increasing trend in Changbai Mountain area under RCPS scenarios. Compared to that in the reference period (1986-2005 ),annual average temperature will increase by 0.7 ℃and 1.0 ℃ in 2020s,1.6 ℃ and 2.2 ℃ in 2050s,1.9 ℃ and 3.8 ℃ in 2080s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.The projected precipitation in most areas of Changbai Mountain increases slightly.Compared to that in the reference period (1986-2005 ),annual precipitation will increase by 6.5% and 2.8% in 2020s,6.6% and 7.9% in 2050s,11.0% and 6.7% in 2080s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.In addition,sta-tistic characteristics of daily mean temperature change in Changbai Mountain area under two scenarios,i.e.,the negative value of skewness coefficient decreases,while that of kurtosis coefficient increases,and it suggests that the potential possibility of high temperature event might rise.The frequency of moderate rain and heavy rain enhances, which means possibly increasing extreme precipitation events.