CAJ | 학술논문

自然灾害情境造成部分决策信息模糊和应急决策者的消极情绪。考虑消极情绪在自然灾害应急决策的影响，构建了考虑情绪下的前景理论的价值函数。运用反函数原理，根据应急决策者对模糊信息的心理感知价值，构建了其实际值的估计函数，用于解决决策信息模糊下的终端供电设施应急抢修决策规划问题，提出了相应的决策模型和求解算法。采用自主开发的在线实验系统，完成了信息模糊下的电网应急抢修决策实验，验证了决策模型和消极情绪下基于决策者心理感知对模糊信息估值方法的有效性。
자연재해정경조성부분결책신식모호화응급결책자적소겁정서。고필소겁정서재자연재해응급결책적영향，구건료고필정서하적전경이론적개치함수。운용반함수원리，근거응급결책자대모호신식적심리감지개치，구건료기실제치적고계함수，용우해결결책신식모호하적종단공전설시응급창수결책규화문제，제출료상응적결책모형화구해산법。채용자주개발적재선실험계통，완성료신식모호하적전망응급창수결책실험，험증료결책모형화소겁정서하기우결책자심리감지대모호신식고치방법적유효성。
Natural disasters cause fuzzy information and negative emotion problems in emergency decision mak-ing.Based on prospect theory and the effects of negative emotions on emergency decision making in natural dis-aster, this research is focused on decision programming for emergency repair of power grid under fuzzy informa-tion.It builds a value function with emotional prospect theory, and adopts the idea of inverse function to set up an estimating function to reveal the relations between decision makers’ perceived value of fuzzy information and its actual value, as a method of its value estimation, and then uses it to establish the decision model for emergen-cy repair of terminal power supply facilities.At last it conducts online decision experiments by a self-developed experimental system of this emergency repair decision, to verify the estimating functions and decision model.