交通信息与安全
交通信息與安全
교통신식여안전
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
2015年
4期
43-48,118
,共7页
陈利霖%邹智军%李珣辉
陳利霖%鄒智軍%李珣輝
진리림%추지군%리순휘
交通工程%交织车辆%跟车换道行为%Logit 模型%命中率%车辆运行轨迹
交通工程%交織車輛%跟車換道行為%Logit 模型%命中率%車輛運行軌跡
교통공정%교직차량%근차환도행위%Logit 모형%명중솔%차량운행궤적
traffic engineering%weaving vehicles%car-following & lane-changing behaviors%Logit model%percent-age of hits%vehicle trajectory
在不满足换道条件下，交织车辆因换道的强制要求，会有选择地放弃跟车转而进行挤车换道.针对此现象，在深入分析交织车辆的跟车换道行为的基础上，从驾驶员的角度出发，选择其跟车换道的影响因素，构建了跟车换道的效用函数，建立了交织车辆跟车换道的二元选择 Logit 概率模型.基于车辆轨迹获取技术对模型的相关变量进行了调查，采用最大似然估计法对模型进行了标定.选择命中率作为评价指标，采用实例对模型的有效性进行了验证.结果表明，模型能有效地模拟交织车辆的跟车换道行为，精度高达99．0％.
在不滿足換道條件下，交織車輛因換道的彊製要求，會有選擇地放棄跟車轉而進行擠車換道.針對此現象，在深入分析交織車輛的跟車換道行為的基礎上，從駕駛員的角度齣髮，選擇其跟車換道的影響因素，構建瞭跟車換道的效用函數，建立瞭交織車輛跟車換道的二元選擇 Logit 概率模型.基于車輛軌跡穫取技術對模型的相關變量進行瞭調查，採用最大似然估計法對模型進行瞭標定.選擇命中率作為評價指標，採用實例對模型的有效性進行瞭驗證.結果錶明，模型能有效地模擬交織車輛的跟車換道行為，精度高達99．0％.
재불만족환도조건하，교직차량인환도적강제요구，회유선택지방기근차전이진행제차환도.침대차현상，재심입분석교직차량적근차환도행위적기출상，종가사원적각도출발，선택기근차환도적영향인소，구건료근차환도적효용함수，건립료교직차량근차환도적이원선택 Logit 개솔모형.기우차량궤적획취기술대모형적상관변량진행료조사，채용최대사연고계법대모형진행료표정.선택명중솔작위평개지표，채용실례대모형적유효성진행료험증.결과표명，모형능유효지모의교직차량적근차환도행위，정도고체99．0％.
When failing to meet the conditions of changing lanes,the weaving vehicles will be forced to change lanes by squeezing the vehicles into the target lanes.This study analyzed the car-following & lane-changing (CF&LC)behav-iors of the weaving vehicles in depth.The influence factors of CF&LC behaviors were identified from the drivers'perspec-tive in order to establish the utility functions of CF&LC behaviors.A probability model of binary choice was also devel-oped in this study.The relevant variables of the models were investigated using the techniques of trajectory capture and calibrated by maximum likelihood estimation method.The effectiveness of the proposed models was verified by a case study.The results show that the proposed model can effectively simulate the CF&LC behaviors of weaving vehicles with a precision of up to 99.0%.
