CAJ | 학술논문

南京东山站水位不仅受秦淮河流域降雨量、下垫面的影响，还受下游长江潮汐上溯、沿河排涝泵站及西南部诸多中小支流回水顶托的影响，水位呈现非单一性、绳套或复式绳套关系，水位预报难度较大。通过多元线性回归模型，研究2011—2014年主汛期在不同降雨条件下东山水位和多个变量之间的相互关系。结果表明，非降水日相对于降水日相关性显著，秦淮新河闸上与东山水位相关性更为显著，在模型中综合考虑武定门闸上及秦淮新河闸上水位，计算结果的精度值要优于只考虑单一指标的情况。
남경동산참수위불부수진회하류역강우량、하점면적영향，환수하유장강조석상소、연하배로빙참급서남부제다중소지류회수정탁적영향，수위정현비단일성、승투혹복식승투관계，수위예보난도교대。통과다원선성회귀모형，연구2011—2014년주신기재불동강우조건하동산수위화다개변량지간적상호관계。결과표명，비강수일상대우강수일상관성현저，진회신하갑상여동산수위상관성경위현저，재모형중종합고필무정문갑상급진회신하갑상수위，계산결과적정도치요우우지고필단일지표적정황。
Water level at Dongshan Station is affected by various factors, not only by the rainfall and underlying surfaces in Qinhuai River Basin, but also by the tides in Yangtze River and other tributaries in southwest of Qinhuai River Basin. Water level presents relation of non-unitary rope, rope or double. The forecasting of water level at Dongshan Station is dififcult. Through multiple linear regression model, it studies mutual relation between water level at Dongshan Station and many variables under the condition of different rainfall in flood season of 2011 to 2014. The result shows that the correlation is more signiifcant in non precipitation days than precipitation days. There is an obvious correlation between the stage of the new Qinhuai River sluice station and the stage of Dongshan. Considering the water level at New Qinhuai River sluice and Wudingmen sluice, the accuracy of the calculation results is better than the single index in the model.