CAJ | 학술논문

近几年来，中国经济在快速增长的同时，却出现了投资率增长、消费率下降的现象。影响居民消费决策的因素有许多，社会保障支出可能是其中之一。文章以生命周期理论为基础，运用1996—2013年浙江省城乡居民人均消费性支出、人均社会保障支出、人均储蓄额、城镇居民人均可支配收入和农村居民人均纯收入的数据，实证分析了在城乡二元化的社会保障体制下社会保障支出对居民消费倾向的影响。研究结果表明：（1）总收入中的可支配收入仍然是影响居民消费决策的主要因素，其对消费的效应远远大于转移性收入；（2）城乡居民人均社会保障支出均对居民消费有促进作用，且农村居民社会保障支出对消费的效应略大于城镇居民。
근궤년래，중국경제재쾌속증장적동시，각출현료투자솔증장、소비솔하강적현상。영향거민소비결책적인소유허다，사회보장지출가능시기중지일。문장이생명주기이론위기출，운용1996—2013년절강성성향거민인균소비성지출、인균사회보장지출、인균저축액、성진거민인균가지배수입화농촌거민인균순수입적수거，실증분석료재성향이원화적사회보장체제하사회보장지출대거민소비경향적영향。연구결과표명：（1）총수입중적가지배수입잉연시영향거민소비결책적주요인소，기대소비적효응원원대우전이성수입；（2）성향거민인균사회보장지출균대거민소비유촉진작용，차농촌거민사회보장지출대소비적효응략대우성진거민。
In recent years, with the rapid growth of Chinese economy, the investment rate increased while the consumption rate declined. There are many factors influencing residents’ consumption decisions, social security expenditure might be one of them. This paper based on the life-cycle theory , using the data of per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents , per capita social security expenditure, per capita savings, per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita net income of rural residents in Zhejiang province during the year 1996 to 2013 , analyzed the impact of social security expenditure on residents’ consumption propensity under the urban-rural dual social security system. The results showed that:(1) disposable income was still the main factor affecting residents ’ consumption decisions and its effect was far greater than the transfer income. (2)The per capita social security expenditures of both urban and rural residents had a promoting effect on household consumption and its effect in rural areas was slightly larger than urban areas.