CAJ | 학술논문

根据精子库供精生育子代婚配过程的系统性分析，采用大样本理论建立了供精导致近亲婚育概率模型与统计分析方法，利用蒙特卡洛模拟验证了该模型与方法的有效性，即：通过估计供精者子代数量及其生活区域人口规模，可计算供精导致近亲婚育的最大风险概率，并分析出主要影响因素，为分区域设置精子库和评估单个捐精者最大供精数的伦理风险提供新方法。
근거정자고공정생육자대혼배과정적계통성분석，채용대양본이론건립료공정도치근친혼육개솔모형여통계분석방법，이용몽특잡락모의험증료해모형여방법적유효성，즉：통과고계공정자자대수량급기생활구역인구규모，가계산공정도치근친혼육적최대풍험개솔，병분석출주요영향인소，위분구역설치정자고화평고단개연정자최대공정수적윤리풍험제공신방법。
The risk of consanguineous marriage due to multiple use of sperm donors in assisted reproductive technology ( ART) is investigated in details based on large-scale sample theory, and a novel probabilistic model and statistic analy-sis method is established to assess the potential risk by revealing the distribution and variation characteristics of the sperm bank activity and the sperm donor. Further Monte Carlo simulation is used to prove the effectivity in calculating the risk probability, which could be used as theoretical basis for the settings and management of regional sperm banks, determi-nation of a maximum offspring number for each sperm donor.