CAJ | 학술논문

托运人的异质性对其货运方式选择行为具有重要影响，忽略异质性问题将会导致预测错误。在分析现有异质性处理方法优缺点的基础上，指出随机参数Logit模型能更好地处理该问题。建立考虑异质性的国际集装箱内陆段运输链选择行为模型，阐述采用极大模拟似然法估计参数的步骤，对随机参数的分布形式和抽样方式进行讨论。以浙江义乌市为例进行实证分析，结果表明，内陆运输总时间对义乌不同国际集装箱托运人的效用呈现出对数正态分布的规律，考虑异质性所建立的模型拟合度更好，且具有更好的解释能力。
탁운인적이질성대기화운방식선택행위구유중요영향，홀략이질성문제장회도치예측착오。재분석현유이질성처리방법우결점적기출상，지출수궤삼수Logit모형능경호지처리해문제。건립고필이질성적국제집장상내륙단운수련선택행위모형，천술채용겁대모의사연법고계삼수적보취，대수궤삼수적분포형식화추양방식진행토론。이절강의오시위례진행실증분석，결과표명，내륙운수총시간대의오불동국제집장상탁운인적효용정현출대수정태분포적규률，고필이질성소건립적모형의합도경호，차구유경호적해석능력。
The heterogeneity of shippers has important effects on their freight mode choice behavior. Igno-ring the heterogeneity will lead to prediction error. Based on analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of existing methods of dealing with heterogeneity,it is pointed out that the random parameter Logit model can better process this issue. A behavioral model considering heterogeneity for international container in-land transport chain choice is established,the procedure of parameter estimation adopting the maximum simulation likelihood method is expounded,and the distribution patterns & sampling methods of random parameters are discussed. Taking Yiwu city in Zhejiang province for empirical analysis,the results show that the utility of total time of inland transport to different international container shippers in Yiwu obeys the lognormal distribution,and the model considering heterogeneity achieves better goodness-of-fit and has a better explanatory power.