CAJ | 학술논문

鉴于国际干散货航运市场的供求均衡关系及规律对市场预测和风险规避有积极的作用，运用经济周期理论，根据一系列主要衡量指标，探究引起国际干散货市场供求波动的因素，如全球经济发展、石油价格波动、钢铁产业发展、国家政策法规、自然原因等。在此基础上得出市场发展的内部波动性和周期性规律。根据对航运市场规律的分析，结合影响因素和未来发展趋势，对干散货运输企业和其他相关企业提出具有建设性的意见。
감우국제간산화항운시장적공구균형관계급규률대시장예측화풍험규피유적겁적작용，운용경제주기이론，근거일계렬주요형량지표，탐구인기국제간산화시장공구파동적인소，여전구경제발전、석유개격파동、강철산업발전、국가정책법규、자연원인등。재차기출상득출시장발전적내부파동성화주기성규률。근거대항운시장규률적분석，결합영향인소화미래발전추세，대간산화운수기업화기타상관기업제출구유건설성적의견。
The positive effects of the supply-demand equilibrium relationship and the law of the interna-tional dry bulk shipping market on market forecasting and risk avoidance are considered. According to a series of main measurement indices,the factors causing the supply-demand fluctuation of the market are explored by the business cycle theory,such as global economic growth,oil price fluctuation,iron and steel industry development,national policy and law,and natural reasons. Based on this,the internal fluctuant and periodic laws of the market development are obtained. Based on the analysis of the shipping market law,with a combination of influencing factors and development trend,some constructive sugges-tions are given for dry bulk shipping enterprises and other related companies.