CAJ | 학술논문

为定量分析气候变化情景模式下大洋河径流响应规律，利用分布式水文模型SWAT模型，基于大洋河沙里寨水文站2000-2010年水文数据以及沙里寨水文站以上集水区域各降雨站点2000-2010年降雨数据对SWAT模型进行率定和验证。基于率定后的SWAT模型，通过设定4种气候变化情景模式（假定气温℃,降水量变化），定量分析不同气候变化情景模式下大洋河径流响应规律。研究结果表明： SWAT模型在大洋河流域具有较好的适用性，模拟的径流深相对误差在10%以内，确定性系数达到0.85以上；在降水不变情况下，气温升高2℃，流域径流减少4.09%，而气温降低2℃，径流增加3.01%；在气温不变情况下，降水量减少10%，流域径流量减少5.23%；降雨量增加10%，流域径流量增加5.11%。
위정량분석기후변화정경모식하대양하경류향응규률，이용분포식수문모형SWAT모형，기우대양하사리채수문참2000-2010년수문수거이급사리채수문참이상집수구역각강우참점2000-2010년강우수거대SWAT모형진행솔정화험증。기우솔정후적SWAT모형，통과설정4충기후변화정경모식（가정기온℃,강수량변화），정량분석불동기후변화정경모식하대양하경류향응규률。연구결과표명： SWAT모형재대양하류역구유교호적괄용성，모의적경류심상대오차재10%이내，학정성계수체도0.85이상；재강수불변정황하，기온승고2℃，류역경류감소4.09%，이기온강저2℃，경류증가3.01%；재기온불변정황하，강수량감소10%，류역경류량감소5.23%；강우량증가10%，류역경류량증가5.11%。
Quantitative analysis the impacts of different climate change scenarios on the runoff ,the distributed hydrological model SWAT model was used,based on the 2000-2010 years hydrological data of Shalizai hy-drological station rainfall station data over the catchment area ,the SWAT model was calibrated and verified. based on the calibrated SWAT model,four kinds of climate change by setting the profile (assuming that the temperature ℃,precipitation changes),quantitative analysis of different climate change scenarios on the river runoff was studied.The results show that:SWAT model in the Dayang River has a better applicability ,the rela-tive error of simulated runoff was less than 10%,and the uncertainty coefficient was above 0.85;under the same conditions of precipitation,temperature rises 2℃,runoff reduction of 4.09%,while the temperature de-creased 2℃,runoff increased 3.01%;in the case of constant temperature ,precipitation decreased by 10%, runoff reduced by 5.23%;10% increased in rainfall,runoff increased 5.11%.The results take a reference value for climate change and environmental protection of water resources in the Dayang River basin.