CAJ | 학술논문

为控制越江隧道建设中普遍存在的“三超”投资风险，文章根据越江隧道投资风险辨识过程中的模糊性、灰性、多属性、群体性等特征，运用隶属度、灰度、多属性和群决策构建了基于灰色模糊多属性群决策的越江隧道投资风险辨识模型，以南京纬三路过江通道工程为例，验证了所构建模型的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明，该模型能够更全面、更真实地利用专家意见对越江隧道投资风险因素进行排序，帮助决策者更准确地了解建设中可能存在的关键风险、重大风险和一般风险，为后续的投资风险评价和采取针对性的预控措施提供科学合理的依据。
위공제월강수도건설중보편존재적“삼초”투자풍험，문장근거월강수도투자풍험변식과정중적모호성、회성、다속성、군체성등특정，운용대속도、회도、다속성화군결책구건료기우회색모호다속성군결책적월강수도투자풍험변식모형，이남경위삼로과강통도공정위례，험증료소구건모형적가행성화유효성。연구결과표명，해모형능구경전면、경진실지이용전가의견대월강수도투자풍험인소진행배서，방조결책자경준학지료해건설중가능존재적관건풍험、중대풍험화일반풍험，위후속적투자풍험평개화채취침대성적예공조시제공과학합리적의거。
To help control the investment risks regarding three commonly over-budget items in river-crossing tunnels, a risk-identification model based on grey fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making was established with respect to fuzzy, grey-level, multi-attribute and group risk characteristics. The model's feasibility and effec-tiveness were verified by using the Nanjing Weisan Road river-crossing project as an example. The results show that it is possible for the model to achieve risk sequencing by making use of expert opinions in a comprehensive and realistic way, helping decision makers to identify the key, major and general potential risks more accurately.