CAJ | 학술논문

基于1961~2012年宁夏各站逐月降水资料，通过趋势分析和EOF方法，对不同季节降水的时空变化规律进行分析得出，近52 a来，宁夏降水整体呈下降趋势，且下降幅度由北向南明显增大；在季节分布上，春、夏、秋季的降水量均呈减少趋势，尤其秋季降水减少趋势最显著，冬季降水呈现上升趋势，变化幅度也是由北向南逐渐增大。结合高原加热场资料，通过SVD方法，寻找高原加热场对宁夏月降水的高影响时期，发现6月降水与前期11月至次年1月的加热场呈负相关，11月降水与前期11月至次年1月的加热场呈正相关；4~5月加热场对后期7、8月的降水有显著影响，前者为正相关，后者为负相关。重新构建新的左右向量，进一步找出不同影响时期的敏感区域，发现在加热场对宁夏降水的高影响时期内，敏感区域不同。其中，银川市和海原、同心、中宁交界处及隆德县3个区域为前期加热场对宁夏6月降水的高敏感区；7月敏感区域位于中部干旱带，尤其是海原、中卫附近；8月敏感区域在引黄灌区和隆德附近；11月敏感区域在南部山区附近。
기우1961~2012년저하각참축월강수자료，통과추세분석화EOF방법，대불동계절강수적시공변화규률진행분석득출，근52 a래，저하강수정체정하강추세，차하강폭도유북향남명현증대；재계절분포상，춘、하、추계적강수량균정감소추세，우기추계강수감소추세최현저，동계강수정현상승추세，변화폭도야시유북향남축점증대。결합고원가열장자료，통과SVD방법，심조고원가열장대저하월강수적고영향시기，발현6월강수여전기11월지차년1월적가열장정부상관，11월강수여전기11월지차년1월적가열장정정상관；4~5월가열장대후기7、8월적강수유현저영향，전자위정상관，후자위부상관。중신구건신적좌우향량，진일보조출불동영향시기적민감구역，발현재가열장대저하강수적고영향시기내，민감구역불동。기중，은천시화해원、동심、중저교계처급륭덕현3개구역위전기가열장대저하6월강수적고민감구；7월민감구역위우중부간한대，우기시해원、중위부근；8월민감구역재인황관구화륭덕부근；11월민감구역재남부산구부근。
Based on the monthly precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia during 1961-2012,the temporal and spa-tial variation characteristics of precipitation in four seasons were analyzed by using trend analysis and EOF methods,firstly. Combined the heating field data over Tibetan Plateau,the responses of monthly precipitation to heating field over Tibetan Plateau were researched by SVD method. The results showed that the annual precipitation in Ningxia during 1961 -2012 presented a declining trend on the whole,especially it was obvious in southern mountainous region. The precipitations in spring,summer and autumn decreased from 1961 to 1982,especially the declining rate was the fastest in autumn,while it increased in winter,and the change degree gradually in-creased from south to north. In addition,the correlation between the heating field from last November to January over Tibetan Plateau and precipitation in June in Ningxia was negative,while it was positive with precipitation in November. The influence of heating fields from April to May on precipitation in July and August was significant,the former was positive correlation,while the latter was negative correlation. During the influence of heating field over Tibetan Plateau on precipitation in Ningxia,the sensitive areas were different. The highly sensitive areas in June located in Yinchuan,Longde and the border of Haiyuan,Tongxin,Zhogning,and in the middle arid area in July,especially in Haiyan and Zhongwei,in irrigation area and Longde in August,and the southern mountainous region in No-vember.