CAJ | 학술논문

根据山东省121个气象站1961~2010年逐日降水观测数据，采用气候趋势系数、M-K突变检验、滑动t检验、Morlet小波分析、相关分析、合成分析等方法讨论了山东省降水集中程度的时空分布特征和变化规律。结果表明：山东省降水集中度（ PCD）的变化范围在0.55~0.70之间，鲁西北、鲁中山区、半岛内陆地区为高值区；降水集中期（ PCP）变化范围在37~46侯之间，地区间差异明显。PCD多年平均值为0.62，PCP在43侯前后。各站PCD的变化趋势均不显著，大部分站PCP的变化趋势不显著。PCD和PCP没有发生突变，PCD和PCP一直分别存在5 a、8 a左右振荡主周期，同时并存多个周期。多水年和少水年PCD和PCP的空间分布差异较明显，年降水量与年内PCD在全省表现出一致的正相关，与PCP相关系数空间分布差异较大，但整体也表现为正相关性。
근거산동성121개기상참1961~2010년축일강수관측수거，채용기후추세계수、M-K돌변검험、활동t검험、Morlet소파분석、상관분석、합성분석등방법토론료산동성강수집중정도적시공분포특정화변화규률。결과표명：산동성강수집중도（ PCD）적변화범위재0.55~0.70지간，로서북、로중산구、반도내륙지구위고치구；강수집중기（ PCP）변화범위재37~46후지간，지구간차이명현。PCD다년평균치위0.62，PCP재43후전후。각참PCD적변화추세균불현저，대부분참PCP적변화추세불현저。PCD화PCP몰유발생돌변，PCD화PCP일직분별존재5 a、8 a좌우진탕주주기，동시병존다개주기。다수년화소수년PCD화PCP적공간분포차이교명현，년강수량여년내PCD재전성표현출일치적정상관，여PCP상관계수공간분포차이교대，단정체야표현위정상관성。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 121 meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010,the characteris-tics of the spatial and temporal distribution and variation of precipitation concentration degree( PCD)and precipitation concentration period( PCP)were analyzed by using climate tendency coefficient,Mann-Kendall test,Moving t-test,Morlet wavelet analysis,cor-relation analysis,synthetic analysis,and so on. The results showed that the annual PCD ranged between 0. 55 and 0. 70 in Shandong Province during 1961-2010,and the high values of PCD distributed in the northwest,the central mountains and peninsula of Shan-dong Province. The annual PCP ranged from 37 to 46 five-day,which showed obvious regional difference. The annual average PCD and PCP were 0. 62 and 43 five-day during 1961-2010 respectively. The climatic tendency of PCD in each station wasn’t signifi-cant ,while that of PCP decreased obviously in Qingyun and Fucheng stations and increased significantly in Haiyang station during 1961-2010. The annual PCD and PCP didn’t change abruptly mutation from 1961 to 2010,and existed the dominant oscillation periods with five years and eight years cycle. The spatial distribution of PCD and PCP in high flow years and low flow years were obviously dif-ferent. The annual precipitation was positively correlated with the annual PCD in Shandong Province,while it was positively correlated with the annual PCP as a whole,but the correlation coefficients were more different.