CAJ | 학술논문

旅游业对气候变化极为敏感。基于1956－2010年黄山市气候数据，采用旅游气候舒适度综合评价模型计算了黄山市气候舒适度；结合2007－2010年黄山市游客量数据，采用O L S方法建立气候舒适度指数与游客量指数间的回归模型。结果表明，气候变化对安徽省黄山市旅游产生影响显著。其中，对国内旅游市场的影响超过了对入境旅游市场的影响，气候舒适度指数每变化1单位，入境游客量指数变化1.25％，国内游客量指数变化1.49％。研究结果可为提出安徽旅游业应对气候变化策略提供科学依据。
여유업대기후변화겁위민감。기우1956－2010년황산시기후수거，채용여유기후서괄도종합평개모형계산료황산시기후서괄도；결합2007－2010년황산시유객량수거，채용O L S방법건립기후서괄도지수여유객량지수간적회귀모형。결과표명，기후변화대안휘성황산시여유산생영향현저。기중，대국내여유시장적영향초과료대입경여유시장적영향，기후서괄도지수매변화1단위，입경유객량지수변화1.25％，국내유객량지수변화1.49％。연구결과가위제출안휘여유업응대기후변화책략제공과학의거。
Tourism is very sensitive to climate change .Based on the climate date of Huangshan city from 1956 to 2010 ,the article analyzes the climate comfort degree of Huangshan city by the Tourism Climate Comfort Degree Evaluation Model .Then combining the tourist date of Huangshan city from 2007 to 2010 , the regression model between climate comfort degree and the tourist amount index is established by the Ordi‐nary Least Squares (OLS) method .The result suggests that climate change has a significant influence on the tourism industry in Huangshan city ,which is greater on domestic tourist market than on abroad market . When the climate comfort index varies every one unit ,the overseas tourist index varies 1 .25% ,and the do‐mestic tourist index varies 1 .49% .The research will provide scientific basis for Anhui tourism industry to a‐dapt to the climate change .