广西师范学院学报(自然科学版)
廣西師範學院學報(自然科學版)
엄서사범학원학보(자연과학판)
Journal of Guangxi Teachers Education University (Natural Science Edition)
2015年
2期
30-38
,共9页
倪增华%刘合香%谭金凯%陈燕璇
倪增華%劉閤香%譚金凱%陳燕璇
예증화%류합향%담금개%진연선
Copula函数%联合分布%重现期%GM (1 ,1)模型%广西
Copula函數%聯閤分佈%重現期%GM (1 ,1)模型%廣西
Copula함수%연합분포%중현기%GM (1 ,1)모형%엄서
copula function%joint distribution%return period%GM (1,1) model%Guangxi
基于Copula函数理论,利用广西1950—2013年的洪涝灾情数据,研究洪涝灾害的受灾人口、农作物受灾面积和直接经济损失的分布状况并进行拟合优度检验,建立了Gumbel-Hougaard Copula三变量的联合分布。通过计算和对比单变量重现期的设计值和三变量重现期下的设计值,发现采用三变量的联合重现期预测洪涝灾情会更好。并且,洪涝灾情重现期和降水重现期大致相符。最后将基于Copula函数的广西洪涝灾情预测模型与GM (1,1)灾情预测模型相对比,结果表明前者能更好地反映洪涝灾情的发生情况。
基于Copula函數理論,利用廣西1950—2013年的洪澇災情數據,研究洪澇災害的受災人口、農作物受災麵積和直接經濟損失的分佈狀況併進行擬閤優度檢驗,建立瞭Gumbel-Hougaard Copula三變量的聯閤分佈。通過計算和對比單變量重現期的設計值和三變量重現期下的設計值,髮現採用三變量的聯閤重現期預測洪澇災情會更好。併且,洪澇災情重現期和降水重現期大緻相符。最後將基于Copula函數的廣西洪澇災情預測模型與GM (1,1)災情預測模型相對比,結果錶明前者能更好地反映洪澇災情的髮生情況。
기우Copula함수이론,이용엄서1950—2013년적홍로재정수거,연구홍로재해적수재인구、농작물수재면적화직접경제손실적분포상황병진행의합우도검험,건립료Gumbel-Hougaard Copula삼변량적연합분포。통과계산화대비단변량중현기적설계치화삼변량중현기하적설계치,발현채용삼변량적연합중현기예측홍로재정회경호。병차,홍로재정중현기화강수중현기대치상부。최후장기우Copula함수적엄서홍로재정예측모형여GM (1,1)재정예측모형상대비,결과표명전자능경호지반영홍로재정적발생정황。
Based on copula theory ,the Gumbel‐Hougaard copula joint distribution of three varia‐bles is established by looking for the distribution of affected population ,affected crop area and direct economic loss according to the flood disaster data from 1950 to 2013 in Guangxi and the test of good‐ness of fit .T hen ,the design value of single‐variable return period and the design value under the three variables return period are calculated to find that using three variables return period to predict flood disaster will be better .And the flood disaster return period and rainfall return period comparison re‐sults are broadly in line .The final will be based on copula function of Guangxi flood disaster forecast model and GM (1 ,1) disaster prediction model ,the result show s that the former can better show the occurrence of flood disaster situation .