CAJ | 학술논문

现有关于大学生心理问题的研究主要停留在心理健康教育层面，对心理问题的发现缺乏有效手段，难以准确预知大学生心理危机。针对这一问题，应用隐马尔科夫模型对大学生心理危机进行预测，分析影响大学生心理健康的因素，并利用 Vague 集理论构造核心因素集；确立隐马尔科夫模型各个要素的初始值，建立预测大学生心理危机的模型，运用 Baum-Welch 算法对模型参数进行训练，并结合 Viterbi 算法进行预测。根据某大学学生心理健康评估原始记录进行实例分析，验证了模型的正确性。研究结果表明，采用核心因素集能够提高预测的准确性，为预知大学生心理问题提供有效的途径。
현유관우대학생심리문제적연구주요정류재심리건강교육층면，대심리문제적발현결핍유효수단，난이준학예지대학생심리위궤。침대저일문제，응용은마이과부모형대대학생심리위궤진행예측，분석영향대학생심리건강적인소，병이용 Vague 집이론구조핵심인소집；학립은마이과부모형각개요소적초시치，건립예측대학생심리위궤적모형，운용 Baum-Welch 산법대모형삼수진행훈련，병결합 Viterbi 산법진행예측。근거모대학학생심리건강평고원시기록진행실례분석，험증료모형적정학성。연구결과표명，채용핵심인소집능구제고예측적준학성，위예지대학생심리문제제공유효적도경。
Existing research on college students’psychological problems mainly stays at the mental health education level.The analysis methods and corresponding treatment measures of psychological problems have been sometimes proposed.However,it is still difficult to accurately predict the students’psychological crisis,and is lacking in effective means to discover these problems.To settle this,a hidden Markov model (HMM)was applied to predict the psychological crisis of college students.A core factor set which may lead to crisis was constructed based on the theory of vague set,and the factors that affect the mental health of college students were analyzed. An initial HMM to predict college students psychological crisis was built by figuring out the initial value of each element of the model,and trained by using the Baum-Welch algorithm.Combining with the Viterbi algorithm,the prediction was carried out,and its correctness was verified by instance analysis according to the original students’psychological health valuation records in an university.The results show that the method can improve the prediction accuracy by adopting the core factor set in the model which would be an effective means to foresee the hidden crisis.