黄金
黃金
황금
Gold
2015年
8期
7-11
,共5页
灰色关联分析法%偏最小二乘法%固定资产投资%实际利用外资%医疗保障%珠宝消费及贸易
灰色關聯分析法%偏最小二乘法%固定資產投資%實際利用外資%醫療保障%珠寶消費及貿易
회색관련분석법%편최소이승법%고정자산투자%실제이용외자%의료보장%주보소비급무역
grey correlation analysis%partial least squares%fixed-asset investment%actual use of foreign invest-ment%medical insurance%jewelry consumption and trade
基于灰色关联分析方法，利用2000—2013年中国珠宝首饰的国内消费和进出口数据进行了实证分析，其结果表明：城镇固定资产投资和实际利用外资对中国珠宝首饰的消费及贸易呈现最为显著的影响；城镇职工医疗保险规模及参加新型农村合作医疗比率与中国珠宝首饰消费及贸易额的变动呈现正向显著的影响。基于偏最小二乘法进行了回归和预测，其结果表明：国际投资对中国珠宝首饰贸易呈现显著的替代效应；城镇职工医疗保险规模的扩大对中国珠宝首饰的进出口额产生抑制效应。中国珠宝首饰消费市场发展比较缓慢，出口外贸珠宝行业已处于升级阶段，贸易规模逐步扩大。
基于灰色關聯分析方法，利用2000—2013年中國珠寶首飾的國內消費和進齣口數據進行瞭實證分析，其結果錶明：城鎮固定資產投資和實際利用外資對中國珠寶首飾的消費及貿易呈現最為顯著的影響；城鎮職工醫療保險規模及參加新型農村閤作醫療比率與中國珠寶首飾消費及貿易額的變動呈現正嚮顯著的影響。基于偏最小二乘法進行瞭迴歸和預測，其結果錶明：國際投資對中國珠寶首飾貿易呈現顯著的替代效應；城鎮職工醫療保險規模的擴大對中國珠寶首飾的進齣口額產生抑製效應。中國珠寶首飾消費市場髮展比較緩慢，齣口外貿珠寶行業已處于升級階段，貿易規模逐步擴大。
기우회색관련분석방법，이용2000—2013년중국주보수식적국내소비화진출구수거진행료실증분석，기결과표명：성진고정자산투자화실제이용외자대중국주보수식적소비급무역정현최위현저적영향；성진직공의료보험규모급삼가신형농촌합작의료비솔여중국주보수식소비급무역액적변동정현정향현저적영향。기우편최소이승법진행료회귀화예측，기결과표명：국제투자대중국주보수식무역정현현저적체대효응；성진직공의료보험규모적확대대중국주보수식적진출구액산생억제효응。중국주보수식소비시장발전비교완만，출구외무주보행업이처우승급계단，무역규모축보확대。
This paper employs grey correlation analysis by using data of international trade and domestic consump-tion of jewelry industry from 2000 to 2013.The empirical analysis and results come as follow.First,it has proved that urban fixed-asset investment and the actual use of foreign investment have been significantly linked with the consump-tion and trade of jewelry.Secondly,the size of medical insurance for urban employees and the coverage rate of NRCMS ( New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme) have the positive shock for both consumption and trade of jewelry.But a-nalysis of the jewelry consumption and trade by using partial least squares regression method reveals that international investment has the great substitution effect on jewelry's trade.Expansion of urban employees medical insurance has in-hibited jewelry trade.The whole jewelry market in China develops slowly,and the scale of its trade is growing larger stably,which indicates its trade business has been in the stage of upgrading.
