CAJ | 학술논문

利用海关统计数据，运用HP滤波法分析了我国棕榈油进口贸易的基本特征和波动周期。研究表明，1996年1月至2015年4月期间棕榈油进口量可划分为7个周期，平均长度为31个月，呈现“峰位降低，谷位上升，振幅减小”的增长型态势；平均扩收比例为1.37，进口仍处于增长期，但扩张能力较弱；棕榈油进口贸易具有规模增长迅速、来源地和口岸高度集中、品种相对集中的特点；进口波动周期形成受价格、国际环境、国内贸易政策等多种因素的影响。
이용해관통계수거，운용HP려파법분석료아국종려유진구무역적기본특정화파동주기。연구표명，1996년1월지2015년4월기간종려유진구량가화분위7개주기，평균장도위31개월，정현“봉위강저，곡위상승，진폭감소”적증장형태세；평균확수비례위1.37，진구잉처우증장기，단확장능력교약；종려유진구무역구유규모증장신속、래원지화구안고도집중、품충상대집중적특점；진구파동주기형성수개격、국제배경、국내무역정책등다충인소적영향。
The cycles of palm oil imports in China were identified by the HP filter while the characteristics and causes are also analyzed. Result shows that the import quantities of palm oil from January 1996 to April 2015 can be divided into seven cycles with the average length of 31 months, the feature of which may be summarized as"lower peak, higher trough and narrower ampli- tude";the average expansion shrinkage ratio is 1.37 which means that the import of palm oil is still increasing but the expansion becomes weak;palm oil imports are expanding quickly,concentrated in sources and imported ports and focus on liquid products;the process of the import cycle formation is affected by a variety of factors, in special the price volatility, and changes in interna- tional circumstances and domestic trade policies.