CAJ | 학술논문

基于1960—2013年京津冀及周边地区34个气象站逐日最高气温和相对湿度资料，利用高温热浪模型，辅以趋势分析、突变检验及相关分析等方法，研究近54年京津冀地区热浪时空变化特征，探讨城市化对热浪变化的影响，并尝试寻找对热浪异常具有稳定指示意义的环流因子。结果表明：1960—2013年京津冀地区热浪变化具有明显的阶段性，以20世纪70年代中期为转折，热浪呈先减少后增加趋势；京津冀地区热浪空间格局变化整体呈南减北增，东南平原区热浪呈下降趋势，北部生态涵养区呈现增加趋势；在区域尺度上，城市化或迁站影响并未改变北京极端热浪变化趋势，主要影响以轻度和中度热浪变化为主；西太平洋副热带高压和青藏高原反气旋环流与京津冀地区热浪异常关系最为显著，对热浪异常是一种稳定且强烈的指示信号。当青藏高原高空反气旋环流异常偏强，西太平洋副热带高压明显偏北，京津冀地区发生超级热浪可能性较大。
기우1960—2013년경진기급주변지구34개기상참축일최고기온화상대습도자료，이용고온열랑모형，보이추세분석、돌변검험급상관분석등방법，연구근54년경진기지구열랑시공변화특정，탐토성시화대열랑변화적영향，병상시심조대열랑이상구유은정지시의의적배류인자。결과표명：1960—2013년경진기지구열랑변화구유명현적계단성，이20세기70년대중기위전절，열랑정선감소후증가추세；경진기지구열랑공간격국변화정체정남감북증，동남평원구열랑정하강추세，북부생태함양구정현증가추세；재구역척도상，성시화혹천참영향병미개변북경겁단열랑변화추세，주요영향이경도화중도열랑변화위주；서태평양부열대고압화청장고원반기선배류여경진기지구열랑이상관계최위현저，대열랑이상시일충은정차강렬적지시신호。당청장고원고공반기선배류이상편강，서태평양부열대고압명현편북，경진기지구발생초급열랑가능성교대。
It indicates that hot summers will become more frequent in eastern China in the future.The region will face a great risk in the absence of any adaptation measures taken towards reducing its vulnerability to effects of extreme heat.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is identified as the biggest metropolitan in northern China.Rapid urbanization and the recent frequent occurrence of hot summers in the region raises questions about influencing factors at the regional scale and the spatiotemporal variability of heat waves.Using the newly developed Heatwave Index (HI),a statistical analysis is conducted on the temporal and spatial dis-tribution characteristics of heat waves in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region over a period from 1960 to 2013. More specifically,based on the history of relocations,the heat wave trends between Beijing and Fengning is compared to investigate the influence of urbanization,and also analyse the relationship between atmos-pheric circulation anomalies and observed heat wave trends.It shows that based on variations in heat wave trends,two distinct phases are identified in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.Owing to some abrupt changes in the mid-1970s,the frequency of heat waves decrease from 1960 to 1973,and then increase from 1974 to 2013.Heat waves show a decreasing trend in the southern part and an increasing trend in the northern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.A significant increasing trend is found in the northern and western bio-logical conservation area,and decreasing trend in south-eastern plains.At the regional scale,urbanization and relocations affect the occurrence of slight to moderate rather than extreme heat waves.In the period of global warming and rapid urbanization,the frequency of heat waves in Beijing is higher than that of Fengn-ing.In recent global warming hiatus,the frequency of heat waves in Beijing is lower than Fengning.Driv-ing factors behind temporal and spatial patterns are deemed complicated.The inter-decadal variations are significantly and closely related to the offsetting of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH)ridge and the anomalous anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau (TPAI)in summer.In other words,there is a positive correlation between the number of heat wave days and WPSH and TPAI.Furthermore,the probability of a summer with a mega-heat wave would increase with the anomalies in WPSH and TPAI.