CAJ | 학술논문

由于数据在空间上表现出自相关性，使得科技资源投入对产出的作用具有区域差异性。基于前期研究对此关注不够，本研究采用突变级数法、ESDA及地理加权回归模型对1998年、2005年及2013年中国科技资源投入产出的时空差异演变进行了探讨，结果表明：（1）科技资源投入和产出都具有显著的空间集聚态势；（2）科技资源投入对产出具有显著的正面影响，但是其影响有下降的趋势；（3） GWR模型比OLS模型更好地模拟了数据；（4）科技资源投入产出的效果具有明显的空间差异性，自东向西成“梯形”分布，且这种趋势还在不断强化。
유우수거재공간상표현출자상관성，사득과기자원투입대산출적작용구유구역차이성。기우전기연구대차관주불구，본연구채용돌변급수법、ESDA급지리가권회귀모형대1998년、2005년급2013년중국과기자원투입산출적시공차이연변진행료탐토，결과표명：（1）과기자원투입화산출도구유현저적공간집취태세；（2）과기자원투입대산출구유현저적정면영향，단시기영향유하강적추세；（3） GWR모형비OLS모형경호지모의료수거；（4）과기자원투입산출적효과구유명현적공간차이성，자동향서성“제형”분포，차저충추세환재불단강화。
Because of the data from the correlation in space , the role of resource input has the regional difference from the output . Based on the previous research which has not enough attention , the space-time difference of the output of S&T resource input in China are analyzed by the catastrophe progression method , ESDA and geographically weighted regression model . The catastrophe progression method , ESDA and geographically weighted regression model at 1998 ,2005 and 2013 .The results find that:(1) the output and input of S&T re-source obviously has both the situation of spatial concentration . (2 ) Input of S&T resource has a significant positive impact to input of S&T resource , but its role has declined . (3 ) GWR model is better than OLS model to simulate the data . (4 ) The influence from S&T re-source input on S&T resource output has a significantly spatial variations , presenting a trapezoidal situation from east to west , and this trend continued to strengthen .