CAJ | 학술논문

在货币量化宽松背景下，世界平均M2／GDP比例的持续上升态势引起各国经济学家及货币政策制定者的广泛关注，并被深入探讨其与经济运行态势的相互影响。本文使用面板数据协整分析及构建误差修正模型等计量经济方法，利用66个国家和地区1991～2013年间的数据资料，在科学构建衡量金融体系指标的基础上，从金融体系视角考察不同金融体系结构是否对M2／GDP比例产生影响差异。在运用金融结构活动、规模等不同金融体系测度方法，使用不同计量模型改变统计过程的条件下，实证检验了不同金融体系对M2／GDP比例的影响：越趋向以银行为主导型金融体系国家，越倾向于有高的M2／GDP比例。
재화폐양화관송배경하，세계평균M2／GDP비례적지속상승태세인기각국경제학가급화폐정책제정자적엄범관주，병피심입탐토기여경제운행태세적상호영향。본문사용면판수거협정분석급구건오차수정모형등계량경제방법，이용66개국가화지구1991～2013년간적수거자료，재과학구건형량금융체계지표적기출상，종금융체계시각고찰불동금융체계결구시부대M2／GDP비례산생영향차이。재운용금융결구활동、규모등불동금융체계측도방법，사용불동계량모형개변통계과정적조건하，실증검험료불동금융체계대M2／GDP비례적영향：월추향이은행위주도형금융체계국가，월경향우유고적M2／GDP비례。
Under the background of monetary quantitative easing (QE) , the rising trend of the world's average M2/GDP ratio has caused wide attention of economists and policy makers from all over the world , and the mutual influence between M2/GDP ratio and eco-nomic running situation are further discussed . Based on 66 countries or regions panel data from 1991 to 2013 and building indicators scien-tifically to measure financial system , this paper makes an empirical study whether different financial system has different effect on M2/GDP ratio through the methods of panel Co-integration and panel ECM . Through the different methods to measure financial system and different econometric models to change statistical process , the results show that:as a country becomes more bank-based , its M2/GDP ratio tends to be higher .