CAJ | 학술논문

基于2000～2013年我国GDP和能源消费总量数据，测算了我国经济增长与碳排放量的变化水平，通过构建脱钩模型来研究二者的脱钩状态，并进一步运用LMDI模型的乘法形式，从经济规模、产业结构、技术进步、能源结构等方面分析了对碳排放量作用的效应大小。结果表明：经济增长与碳排放之间，除了2002～2004年为扩张负脱钩以及2004～2005年和2010～2011年为扩张连结以外，其他年度都为弱脱钩状态；从总体上看，经济规模效应、产业结构效应均为正效应，技术进步效应与能源结构效应则为负，且经济规模效应的作用最为显著。
기우2000～2013년아국GDP화능원소비총량수거，측산료아국경제증장여탄배방량적변화수평，통과구건탈구모형래연구이자적탈구상태，병진일보운용LMDI모형적승법형식，종경제규모、산업결구、기술진보、능원결구등방면분석료대탄배방량작용적효응대소。결과표명：경제증장여탄배방지간，제료2002～2004년위확장부탈구이급2004～2005년화2010～2011년위확장련결이외，기타년도도위약탈구상태；종총체상간，경제규모효응、산업결구효응균위정효응，기술진보효응여능원결구효응칙위부，차경제규모효응적작용최위현저。
Based on China's total GDP and energy consumption data from 2000 to 2013 , this paper estimates changes in the level of economic growth and carbon emissions in our country , through building decoupling model to study the decoupling state , and further uses multiplicative LMDI model to research the effect on carbon emissions from economies scale , industry structure , technological progress , en-ergy structure ect . The results show that:the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is expansion negative decoupling in 2002-2004 years , expansion link in 2004-2005 years and 2010-2011 years , which in other years is week decoupling;Overall , the economies scale , industrial structure effects are positive effects , technological innovation and structural effects of energy is negative , and the role of economies of scale is of the most significant .