CAJ | 학술논문

将川滇菱形地块分为两个地块，分别以形变确定应变速率、深部速度构造确定弹性模量、联合地块体积确定地块应变能积累与时间的关系，结合历史强震研究应变能积累释放周期以及该周期内的强震活动，进而研究应变能积累释放与强震活动的关系．结果表明，地块应变能积累释放存在周期性并可预测强震震级．在应变能积累前期，没有强震（M≥7．0）发生；随着时间增加，应变能继续增加，地块上先后发生几次强震，但每次强震震级均小于预测震级，即一次强震只释放了一部分能量；而后应变能积累继续增加，直到一、二次特大强震（M≥7．5）发生，将绝大部分应变能释放．至此，老的周期结束，新的周期开始．应变能积累从小到大直到最后完全释放的周期性导致了地震的平静活跃周期，地震活跃期比平静期长得多．本文认为，大区域地理范围因其含有多个地块，不宜讨论其地震平静活跃周期，而对于小范围单次强震也不宜讨论其复发周期．虽然活跃期中的强震从时间上看并无任何规律，但利用活动地块应变能的积累释放曲线所预测的震级与实际震级很接近．本文结果对于地震安全性评价工作可能有重要意义．
장천전릉형지괴분위량개지괴，분별이형변학정응변속솔、심부속도구조학정탄성모량、연합지괴체적학정지괴응변능적루여시간적관계，결합역사강진연구응변능적루석방주기이급해주기내적강진활동，진이연구응변능적루석방여강진활동적관계．결과표명，지괴응변능적루석방존재주기성병가예측강진진급．재응변능적루전기，몰유강진（M≥7．0）발생；수착시간증가，응변능계속증가，지괴상선후발생궤차강진，단매차강진진급균소우예측진급，즉일차강진지석방료일부분능량；이후응변능적루계속증가，직도일、이차특대강진（M≥7．5）발생，장절대부분응변능석방．지차，로적주기결속，신적주기개시．응변능적루종소도대직도최후완전석방적주기성도치료지진적평정활약주기，지진활약기비평정기장득다．본문인위，대구역지리범위인기함유다개지괴，불의토론기지진평정활약주기，이대우소범위단차강진야불의토론기복발주기．수연활약기중적강진종시간상간병무임하규률，단이용활동지괴응변능적적루석방곡선소예측적진급여실제진급흔접근．본문결과대우지진안전성평개공작가능유중요의의．
In this paper,the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block is divided into two parts.The strain rate is achieved by deformation, the elastic modulus is acquired by velocity structure in the deep,the volume of the block is calculated by the area and thickness of block,and then the variation of accumulated strain energy with time is confirmed.On this basis,combined with the research of historical strong earthquakes,the relationship between the period of energy accumulating-releasing and the seismic activity is obtained.The results show that the strain energy accumulating-releasing emerges periodically,which can be used for strong earthquake prediction.The strong earthquakes (M ≥7.0 )do not occur at initial stage of strain energy accumulation.The strain energy increases continuously with time and then several strong events occur firstly, but each event is smaller in magnitude than the predicted ones,i.e .,one event releases a small part energy and later energy increases incessantly.The energy is not completely released until one or two great strong events (M≥7.5)occur. Thus,the old cycle ends and a new cycle starts.Obviously,the quiet to active periods are caused by the cycle of strain energy accumulation from small to great,and then to completely releasing.Active stage is much longer than the quiet one.Therefore,it is unsuitable to discuss the quiet-active period for a great geographic area covered by many blocks or to discuss the repeat period of single strong earthquake for a small region.Although the occurrence of strong earthquakes does not obey any law in time,the magnitude predicted by the strain energy accumulating-releasing curves is coincident with the real one, which may be significant for seismic safety evaluation.