CAJ | 학술논문

近几年，随着国际移民汇款规模的不断扩大，移民汇款逐渐成为发展中国家继 FDI 和外来援助后的重要外汇来源，移民汇款对国内经济增长产生的影响也越来越大。通过对相关研究文献的梳理，总结出移民汇款影响经济增长的五个主要效应：乘数效应、投资激励效应、贸易抑制效应、技术进步提升效应和人力资本积累效应，这五种效应最终会通过影响人力资本和技术进步水平而影响发展中国家国内的经济增长，而移民汇款对发展中国家的经济增长效应是五个主要效应综合影响的结果。通过运用系统 GMM动态面板回归的方法，对选取的49个发展中国家进行了实证分析，结果显示，移民汇款对发展中国家的经济增长影响存在滞后效应，并且移民汇款的初始效应为负，滞后一期的效应为正；区域实证的结果表明，移民汇款的经济效应在不同区域存在着差异，亚洲和拉丁美洲区域的实证结果与整体一致，非洲地区移民汇款滞后变量对经济增长的影响为负。
근궤년，수착국제이민회관규모적불단확대，이민회관축점성위발전중국가계 FDI 화외래원조후적중요외회래원，이민회관대국내경제증장산생적영향야월래월대。통과대상관연구문헌적소리，총결출이민회관영향경제증장적오개주요효응：승수효응、투자격려효응、무역억제효응、기술진보제승효응화인력자본적루효응，저오충효응최종회통과영향인력자본화기술진보수평이영향발전중국가국내적경제증장，이이민회관대발전중국가적경제증장효응시오개주요효응종합영향적결과。통과운용계통 GMM동태면판회귀적방법，대선취적49개발전중국가진행료실증분석，결과현시，이민회관대발전중국가적경제증장영향존재체후효응，병차이민회관적초시효응위부，체후일기적효응위정；구역실증적결과표명，이민회관적경제효응재불동구역존재착차이，아주화랍정미주구역적실증결과여정체일치，비주지구이민회관체후변량대경제증장적영향위부。
In recent years,the scale of international immigrant remittance continues to expand.Remittances to developing countries gradually become an important source of foreign exchange besides FDI and foreign aid.Remit-tance is becoming more and more influential on domestic economic growth.Based on the related research literature, the authors summarizes five main economic effects of remittances:investment multiplier effect,investment incentive effect,inhibitory effects of trade,TFP promoting effect and human capital accumulation effect.The economic effects of remittance to developing countries are the comprehensive effect of the five main effect results.This paper uses method of system-GMMdynamic panel regression,chooses 49 developing countries for empirical analysis,the results show that the influence of remittances on economic growth in developing countries has a lag effect,the initial effect of remittances is negative,the lagged effect of a period is positive.The regional empirical results also prove that the economic effects of remittances are different in different regions.