CAJ | 학술논문

基于新古典增长理论，跨省人口迁移是缩小地区差距的力量。但基于新经济地理学，跨省人口迁移又会通过规模经济效应扩大地区差距。本文使用全国人口普查数据，采用灰色关联度分析方法，同时研究了跨省人口迁移对迁出地和迁入地经济发展的影响。结果发现，跨省人口迁移与迁入地经济发展之间的平均关联度高于与迁出地经济发展的平均关联度。这一结果意味着跨省人口迁移在现阶段是扩大地区差距的力量，因此，中央政府在改革户籍制度促进农村劳动力自由流动的同时，应注重向欠发达地区提供偏向性的财政政策支持。
기우신고전증장이론，과성인구천이시축소지구차거적역량。단기우신경제지이학，과성인구천이우회통과규모경제효응확대지구차거。본문사용전국인구보사수거，채용회색관련도분석방법，동시연구료과성인구천이대천출지화천입지경제발전적영향。결과발현，과성인구천이여천입지경제발전지간적평균관련도고우여천출지경제발전적평균관련도。저일결과의미착과성인구천이재현계단시확대지구차거적역량，인차，중앙정부재개혁호적제도촉진농촌노동력자유류동적동시，응주중향흠발체지구제공편향성적재정정책지지。
Based on the neoclassical growth theory,inter-provincial migration is a power of elimi-nating income gap among regions.Bat according to the new economic geography,inter-provincial mi-gration may expand the income gap among regions.Using the fifth and sixth national population cen-sus data and grey correlation analysis method,this article calculates the inter-provincial migration’s influcnce on emigration region and its regional economic growth,finding that the correlation coeffi-cient between inter-provincial migration and immigration’s regional economic growth is higher than that between inter-provincial migration and emigration’s regional economic growth.This confirms that inter-provincial migration is the main power to expand the regional gap,so that our government should reform the household registration system to promote the free-flowing of rural workforce, meanwhile,it should focus on providing biased-financial support for the less developed areas.