CAJ | 학술논문

相比北方大型风电大多建于较为平坦内陆区域，南方电网区域内很多风电场则建设在相对复杂的地形环境，其中较有代表性的是高山、丘陵和海岸风电场，给风电功率预测系统的运行提出较大挑战。风电功率预测系统应用扩展性研究目的是使预测系统能在复杂而多变的实际现场应用场景下保持一定精度水平，满足系统用户需求。研究了南方电网区域内典型风资源特性和风电出力特性，根据这些特性，围绕当前预测系统功能流程中的三个主要技术环节———多输入数据源、功率预测建模和预测结果展现，提出应用扩展性研究框架。该项工作可以用于在数值天气预报精度有限的条件下改善预测精度，并且指导预测系统各技术环节中子技术选项的灵活组合方案，提高预测系统在工程现场的应用价值。基于南方电网区域内某风电场历史数据，论证了所提方法的有效性。
상비북방대형풍전대다건우교위평탄내륙구역，남방전망구역내흔다풍전장칙건설재상대복잡적지형배경，기중교유대표성적시고산、구릉화해안풍전장，급풍전공솔예측계통적운행제출교대도전。풍전공솔예측계통응용확전성연구목적시사예측계통능재복잡이다변적실제현장응용장경하보지일정정도수평，만족계통용호수구。연구료남방전망구역내전형풍자원특성화풍전출력특성，근거저사특성，위요당전예측계통공능류정중적삼개주요기술배절———다수입수거원、공솔예측건모화예측결과전현，제출응용확전성연구광가。해항공작가이용우재수치천기예보정도유한적조건하개선예측정도，병차지도예측계통각기술배절중자기술선항적령활조합방안，제고예측계통재공정현장적응용개치。기우남방전망구역내모풍전장역사수거，론증료소제방법적유효성。
Compared with the large wind farms in the north which are built in the relatively flat inland area, wind farms located in CSG(China Southern Power Grid) are built in the relatively complex terrain environment, such as onshore or hilly areas, which chal-lenges the performance of wind power forecast system ( WPFS) greatly.The purpose of the wind power forecasting system applica-tion research is to keep the forecasting precision of the system in the complex and changeable scene and meet the requirement by the users.This paper presents the solution to flexibility of WPFS based on the analysis of typical wind resource and wind power character-istics over CSG, and the actual arrangements and user requirements for WPFS as well.Then the framework of forecasting flexibility is proposed according to the three main technical links of WPFS: multiple data inputs, forecasting modeling and forecasting results'forms, providing guidance for the building of WPFS and forecasting precision improvement in view of engineering.To illustrate the i-dea in detail, historical data of wind farms in CSG is used as displaying samples for discussion.