CAJ | 학술논문

利用2001—2012年度京津冀三省面板数据构建PVAR模型，通过格兰杰因果检验、方差分解以及脉冲响应函数方法，对京津冀交通运输网络一体化与区域经济关联性进行实证分析。结果表明：交通运输网络一体化既是区域经济发展的原因，也是区域经济发展的结果。但是，交通运输网络一体化程度与区域经济的相互影响是不对等的，交通运输网络一体化程度对经济增长波动的冲击长期解释力最低达到3.98%，经济增长对交通运输网络一体化程度的长期解释力最低达到14.16%。公路建设在滞后2~3期的情况下都是经济增长的格兰杰原因，对于京津冀区域经济增长带动作用更为明显。
이용2001—2012년도경진기삼성면판수거구건PVAR모형，통과격란걸인과검험、방차분해이급맥충향응함수방법，대경진기교통운수망락일체화여구역경제관련성진행실증분석。결과표명：교통운수망락일체화기시구역경제발전적원인，야시구역경제발전적결과。단시，교통운수망락일체화정도여구역경제적상호영향시불대등적，교통운수망락일체화정도대경제증장파동적충격장기해석력최저체도3.98%，경제증장대교통운수망락일체화정도적장기해석력최저체도14.16%。공로건설재체후2~3기적정황하도시경제증장적격란걸원인，대우경진기구역경제증장대동작용경위명현。
According to the panel data (2001 —2012)of three regions,a PVAR model is estab-lished to make empirical analysis on the com-movement relation between the integration of Jing-Jin-Ji transportation network and regional economy by using the granger causality test,variance decomposi-tion and impulse response function methods.The results show that transportation network integration is both the reason and the result of regional economic development.However,the mutual influence on the integration of transportation network and regional economic is unequal.Long-term explanatory power of the degree of integration of transportation network that impacts on the fluctuation of eco-nomic growth may reach at least 3.98%,while Long-term explanatory power of economic growth that impacts on the degree of integration of transportation network may reach at least 14.16%.If the road construction lags behind 2-3 years,it will be the granger reason of economic growth to show that road construction plays a significant promotion role in Jing-Jin-Ji regional economic growth.