CAJ | 학술논문

在MODIS数据产品MOD13的支持下，采用决策树分类法提取了山东省小麦种植面积，划定研究区的小麦种植区，将非种植区的气象站点数据剔除，着重分析麦区范围内的气候变化特征，分析了1980～2010年山东省冬小麦产量受麦区气候影响的规律，结果表明：（1）1980～2010年山东省麦区气候变化主要表现为全生育期内平均气温的升高和总日照时数的减少，变化率分别为0．6℃／10 a和－60 h／10 a；生育期内总降水量没有明显的变化规律。（2）1980～2010年山东省冬小麦单产与全生育期内平均日最低气温、平均气温、≥0℃积温在0．01水平上显著正相关；越冬期平均日最低气温和返青期平均日最低气温与单产在0．01水平上显著正相关。
재MODIS수거산품MOD13적지지하，채용결책수분류법제취료산동성소맥충식면적，화정연구구적소맥충식구，장비충식구적기상참점수거척제，착중분석맥구범위내적기후변화특정，분석료1980～2010년산동성동소맥산량수맥구기후영향적규률，결과표명：（1）1980～2010년산동성맥구기후변화주요표현위전생육기내평균기온적승고화총일조시수적감소，변화솔분별위0．6℃／10 a화－60 h／10 a；생육기내총강수량몰유명현적변화규률。（2）1980～2010년산동성동소맥단산여전생육기내평균일최저기온、평균기온、≥0℃적온재0．01수평상현저정상관；월동기평균일최저기온화반청기평균일최저기온여단산재0．01수평상현저정상관。
With the support of MOD13 ( MODIS’ s data product) , by using the method of decision-making tree classification, the wheat planting area of Shandong province was extracted, and the wheat planting zones in this province were delimited.After get-ting rid of the data of weather stations in non-planting zones, we emphatically analyzed the features of climatic changes within these wheat planting zones, and studied the impacts of climatic changes on the yield of winter wheat in Shandong province from 1980 to 2010.The results showed that the main climatic changes in wheat planting zones of Shandong province during 1980~2010 were the increase in average air temperature and the decrease in total sunshine duration in the whole growth period of wheat, and their chan-ging rates were 0.6℃/10 a and-60 h/10 a respectively.The total rainfall in wheat growth period had no obvious interannual chan-ging rule.During 1980~2010, the winter wheat yield per unit area of Shandong province was significantly ( P<0.01) positively cor-related with the average daily minimum air temperature, average air temperature,and accumulated temperature more than or equal to 0℃in the whole growth period of wheat, and it was also significantly ( P<0.01) positively correlated with the average daily mini-mum air temperature in both overwintering period and seedling establishment period.