CAJ | 학술논문

尼泊尔Ms8.1级地震造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失。中国地震局在震后2小时就及时发布了此次地震的地震动强度预测图（即震动图）。作为地震应急救援的重要图件之一，震动图对地震救援和震后灾害损失评估等工作提供了科学有效的参考。但是在震后短时间内快速生成的震动图难以避免地存在一些不确定性因素，需要根据震后信息的不断积累及时加以修正，同时还要结合考虑局部地质构造背景、地震波的衰减关系特性以及土层对地震动参数放大效应等方面的不确定性因素来对于强度预测图进行修正。
니박이Ms8.1급지진조성료중대적인원상망화재산손실。중국지진국재진후2소시취급시발포료차차지진적지진동강도예측도（즉진동도）。작위지진응급구원적중요도건지일，진동도대지진구원화진후재해손실평고등공작제공료과학유효적삼고。단시재진후단시간내쾌속생성적진동도난이피면지존재일사불학정성인소，수요근거진후신식적불단적루급시가이수정，동시환요결합고필국부지질구조배경、지진파적쇠감관계특성이급토층대지진동삼수방대효응등방면적불학정성인소래대우강도예측도진행수정。
The Ms8. 1 Nepal Earthquake caused heavy casualties and property losses. Two hours after the earth-quake,China Earthquake Administration released the seismic intensity prediction map( i. e. ShakeMaps). The in-tensity map can provide a scientific and effective reference to earthquake rescue and earthquake damage assess-ment. But the rapid generation of ShakeMaps has many uncertain factors and we need to modify it according to the information we get after the earthquake. This paper discussed several uncertainty factors such as the local geological structure background,seismic wave attenuation relationship and soil amplification effect.