CAJ | 학술논문

根据黄河有实测资料以来的水文泥沙定位观测数据,利用非线性统计方法分析了1919—2012年黄河潼关以上河段水沙系列变化趋势。20世纪80年代中期以来水沙变化特点表明,黄河年径流量、年输沙量自20世纪80年代中期以来总体呈不断减少之趋势,而上中游水沙关系则早于20世纪60年代末已发生突变,1986年发生的突变属上中游同时发生的第2次突变。从百年尺度看,黄河水沙变化在1960年以前主要受到气候等自然因素影响,径流泥沙系列随降雨丰歉而出现相应的丰枯变化,之后黄河水沙变化受气候等自然因素和人类活动因素的双重影响,尽管不同时段降雨有丰歉变化,但径流量、输沙量都持续减少；近百年内年输沙量趋势度的绝对值明显大于年径流量趋势度的绝对值,中游的年径流量、年输沙量的趋势度的绝对值明显大于上游的；近30年是黄河水沙百年尺度中最枯的时段,其变化的突出特点表现在来水来沙量不断显著减少,水沙变化程度在空间上分布不均,泥沙主要减于中游而径流主要减于上游,水沙年内分配趋于均匀,来沙系数趋于降低,水沙搭配关系趋好。
근거황하유실측자료이래적수문니사정위관측수거,이용비선성통계방법분석료1919—2012년황하동관이상하단수사계렬변화추세。20세기80년대중기이래수사변화특점표명,황하년경류량、년수사량자20세기80년대중기이래총체정불단감소지추세,이상중유수사관계칙조우20세기60년대말이발생돌변,1986년발생적돌변속상중유동시발생적제2차돌변。종백년척도간,황하수사변화재1960년이전주요수도기후등자연인소영향,경류니사계렬수강우봉겸이출현상응적봉고변화,지후황하수사변화수기후등자연인소화인류활동인소적쌍중영향,진관불동시단강우유봉겸변화,단경류량、수사량도지속감소；근백년내년수사량추세도적절대치명현대우년경류량추세도적절대치,중유적년경류량、년수사량적추세도적절대치명현대우상유적；근30년시황하수사백년척도중최고적시단,기변화적돌출특점표현재래수래사량불단현저감소,수사변화정도재공간상분포불균,니사주요감우중유이경류주요감우상유,수사년내분배추우균균,래사계수추우강저,수사탑배관계추호。
According to observed data of runoff and sediment load in the Yellow River from 1919 to 2012, the trend of the runoff and sediment load in the reaches upstream of Tongguan was analyzed with nonlinear statistical methods. The annual runoff and sediment discharge has shown a declining trend in the Yellow River since the mid-1980s, and the relationship between runoff and the sediment load in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River abruptly changed before the late 1960s and abruptly changed again in 1986. At the century scale, the runoff and sediment changes of the Yellow River were mainly influenced by climatic and other natural factors before 1960, high and low runoff and sediment loads occurred with changes in rainfall, while the runoff and sediment changes were influenced by human activities and natural factors since 1960. Though rainfall showed significant changes at different times, the runoff and sediment load decreased continuously. Over the last hundred years, the absolute value of the tendency of the annual sediment transport amount has been significantly higher than that of the annual runoff, and the absolute values of the tendency of annual runoff and the sediment transport amount in the middle reach have been significantly higher than those in the upper reach. Over the last 30 years, the runoff and sediment load were at their lowest levels in the Yellow River, and the outstanding characteristics were the continuous decrease of the runoff and sediment load, the uneven spatial distribution of the runoff and sediment load, the decrease of the sediment load mainly occurring in the middle reaches, and the decrease of runoff mainly occurring in the upper reaches. Thus, the annual distribution of the runoff and sediment load tended to be uniform, the incoming sediment coefficient tended to decrease, and the relation between runoff and sediment load tended to be strong.