CAJ | 학술논문

采用MRIO模型,对1995—2011年中美两国20个行业的贸易内涵碳进行测算,并分析其总体及行业特征. 研究得出:一方面,中国对美国出口内涵碳远大于其从美国进口的内涵碳规模,从而中国通过贸易承接了美国大量的内涵碳转移;另一方面,相对于两国的贸易规模,中国承接了更多的内涵碳转移,从而加剧了全球范围的"碳泄漏". 在此基础上,采用SDA方法将贸易内涵碳转移的影响因素进行分解,研究得出:规模效应总体为正,且贡献率最高,表明中国日益增长的对美出口是推动两国贸易内涵碳转移不断扩大的最主要因素;结构效应总体为正,但影响很小;技术效应为负,证明中国企业能源利用效率的不断提升在一定程度上抑制了两国贸易内涵碳转移规模的扩张.
채용MRIO모형,대1995—2011년중미량국20개행업적무역내함탄진행측산,병분석기총체급행업특정. 연구득출:일방면,중국대미국출구내함탄원대우기종미국진구적내함탄규모,종이중국통과무역승접료미국대량적내함탄전이;령일방면,상대우량국적무역규모,중국승접료경다적내함탄전이,종이가극료전구범위적"탄설루". 재차기출상,채용SDA방법장무역내함탄전이적영향인소진행분해,연구득출:규모효응총체위정,차공헌솔최고,표명중국일익증장적대미출구시추동량국무역내함탄전이불단확대적최주요인소;결구효응총체위정,단영향흔소;기술효응위부,증명중국기업능원이용효솔적불단제승재일정정도상억제료량국무역내함탄전이규모적확장.
The paper uses MRIO model to calculate the carbon emissions embodied in Sino-US trade and results show that on one hand, carbon emissions embodied in China's exports to the US is far larger than that in its imports and China actually receives a bulk of carbon emission transfer from the US via bilateral trade which presents a similar tendency to the volume of trade balance;on the other hand, compared with China 's relative scale of exports, China exports much more embodied carbon emissions leading to deteriorating global 'carbon leakage'. SDA is exploited to decompose the effects that influence the transfer of carbon emissions embodied. Results show a general positive effect of scale with highest contribution indicating that China's increasing exports to the US plays the most important role in pulling the carbon-emission transfer to expand; the structure effect is positive with minor magnitude demonstrating the change of industrial proportion in China 's exports to the US is rather small; the technology effect is negative confirming that the promoting energy efficiency help restrain the transfer scale of carbon emissions embodied in Sino-US trade from expanding.